Small jets flying regional routes are expected to account for a third of China's total aviation fleet in 20 years to meet surging demand, a research centre said yesterday.

By 2025, civil air operators are projected to have added 800 regional jets, half of them 60-100-seaters, the Aviation Industry Development Research Centre of China said in its annual market forecast.

As the country's economy continues to thrive, air travel between large and small cities and among medium-sized cities will become more frequent, calling for the deployment of more aircraft, said Wang Boxue, a senior researcher with the centre.

Air travel increased by 35.2 per cent year on year to reach 23 billion ton-kilometres in 2004, the third largest volume in the world. In the next two decades the yearly growth rate is forecast to run at 8.4 per cent, according to Wang.

To match this trend and support the national strategy of developing the western regions and revitalizing Northeast China, the country will have to build a series of small and medium-sized airports, he said.

Most flights connect cities in the affluent east. The less developed west, particularly Southwest China, where development and tourist opportunities are abundant, will become the fastest-growing air market in the future, Wang said.

In five years, the number of airports on the Chinese mainland will rise from 137 to 200, and further increase to 250 by 2020, according to the centre's projections.

Turbo-fan regional jets have an advantage operating in the point-to-point market that will be created by the new airports, Wang said. Since new air routes do not usually have stable passenger bases, using larger jets would undoubtedly lead to both a low flight frequency and occupation rate.

Turbo-fan regional aircraft allow air carriers to achieve an acceptable occupation rate and reduce operational risks, Wang said.

Smaller aircraft will also be increasingly used to replace larger jets operated by major airlines on less popular routes, as air companies are desperate to improve business performance.

Only 26 per cent of China's air routes averaged two or more flights each day in 2004, and 59 per cent had an average of less than one flight a day, according to statistics from the General Administration of Civil Aviation of China.

Despite the low flight frequency and passenger flow, planes with at least 100 seats were used on 71 per cent of these routes, the sources said.

"It will be more economical for the airlines to switch to regional jets with fewer than 100 seats, which can lead to increased flight frequency and occupancy rate, thus giving the companies an edge," Wang said.

Passengers will prefer turbo-fan regional jets with 60-100 seats to 50-seater aircraft, he said.

As in other developed air markets, regional jets will play an important role in extending the geographic reach of major airline hubs and augmenting larger airplane operations in off-peak hours, he said.

Regional aviation last year accounted for 9.8 per cent of the country's total passenger flow, according to Wang.