Although the third report of the Constitutional Development Task Force has unveiled areas of electoral change allowed in 2007/08, the central government will never permit any kind of de facto universal suffrage to take place.

The most important thing now is to work out election methods for 2007/08 in line with the actual situation in Hong Kong, Tsang Yok-sing, ex-chairman of the Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong (DAB), told China Daily in an exclusive interview yesterday.

Since the country's top legislature has ruled out universal suffrage in 2007/08, there is no point in insisting on electing the chief executive in 2007 and the entire legislature in 2008 through universal suffrage, Tsang said.

He also thought it meaningless to suggest 2012 or 2017 as the next possible timeframe for universal suffrage without arriving at electoral methods for 2007/08 first.

"To be pragmatic, we must first settle the election methods for 2007/08 before studying ways to create favourable conditions for universal suffrage," he said.

Tsang believed there is still room for changing the electoral laws in the light of the decision by the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPCSC), but warned against any illusions to create de facto universal-suffrage elections.

The central government will definitely not allow it to happen, he said.

There are suggestions to expand the current 800-member Election Committee (EC) that chooses the chief executive to 1,200, 1,600 or 3,200, he noted.

But in no way shall it be expanded to six million (close to the Hong Kong population) or three million (close to the total number of registered voters).

"Expanding the size of the EC to six million or three million is out-and-out universal suffrage. I don't think the central government will approve this," he said.

As for the electorate that chooses the EC members, Tsang says it is also impossible to increase its size from 165,000 at present to three million.

"It would be a de facto election of the chief executive through universal suffrage," he said.

Yet he thought it would be a big step forward if the number could be doubled or quadrupled. The size of the EC and its electorate is open to discussion, he added.

For the upcoming LegCo election in September, Tsang is well aware that the rival "pro-democracy" camp will use the issue of universal suffrage to attack the DAB.

He is also aware that the "pro-democracy" camp is persisting in calling for universal suffrage in 2007/08, and is against increasing the number of seats in the geographical constituencies (GC) concurrent with increase in functional constituency seats.

In Tsang's opinion, the democrats need to explain to their voters why.

"People will ask them if there is any meaning to keep on asking for universal suffrage in 2007/08 after it has been turned down," he said.

They are not really democratic if they are opposed to increasing GC seats because they think they can't win many more seats, he said.

"If they repeat their confrontational moves, they will lose their popularity."

(China Daily HK Edition May 12, 2004)