The weather phenomenon El Nino, which can lead to flooding or droughts, is likely to occur in China this spring, meteorologists said Wednesday.

It will be triggered this spring if the ongoing rising sea surface temperatures in the equatorial eastern Pacific continue in the weeks ahead and remain 0.5 degrees Celsius warmer than normal this spring, Chinese meteorologists announced Wednesday.

Although the predictions are in accord with data from recent monitoring of El Nino, it is hard to say whether or not certain abnormal climate changes will be triggered in particular areas of China, they added.

Most experts agree that it is rather early in the year for confident predictions to be made for the remainder of 2002, according to the latest reports on the year's El Nino outlook released by the World Meteorological Organization.

However, both the slow evolution of the tropical Pacific over the last few seasons and recent developments over the last couple of months are leading experts to watch the situation very closely and to remain alert, the organization's report said.

Predictions about El Nino have a very limited capacity. They include computer-based climate-forecast models that usually vary as to whether the existing rise in sea surface temperatures will develop further into what is commonly referred to as an El Nino event.

Zhai Panmiao, a chief scientist at the State Climate Centre, said Wednesday that China's unusual climate changes are not caused solely by El Nino.

He was briefing the media in Beijing on abnormal changes to China's climate, particularly the warmer winters since 1986.

Zhu Changhan, also a chief scientist at the centre, confirmed that China experienced its 16th consecutive "warm'' winter this year.

Zhu added that, between early December last year to February this year, the average temperature in China was 0.3ºC, second only to the 1.1ºC temperature in the winter of 1998-99.

This January, the coldest month of the year in China, temperatures in many major cities averaged a 57-year record -- including Beijing, Hangzhou and Nanjing.

Zhai said that, although there are various conjectures in the media about El Nino and its impact on China's climate, such as possible flooding in the south, "such guesses cannot be treated as official professional predictions from meteorological authorities.

Using many forecasting methods, including conventional historic weather observations, the centre is able to predict the occurrence of El Nino six months in advance only as a basis for short-term weather forecasts or to help the authorities in their decision-making, Zhai said.

(People's Daily February 28, 2002)