The forecast was based on a report made by a research group led by Fang Zhaoben, a professor at the Chinese University of Science and Technology in Hefei, capital of east China's Anhui Province.

Fang's group has been engaged in statistical analysis of figures released worldwide on SARS patients, suspected SARS patients and SARS fatalities.

The group made a preliminary forecast on the decreasing trend of hospitalized SARS patients in Beijing, the worst-hit area in the world, with a method called chromatography non-linear trend.

Researchers estimated the number of SARS patients in hospital in Beijing at 100 around July 5 and less than 60 around July 10, a number low enough for the World Health Organization to lift its travel advisory.

The next month was a critical period, Fang said, urging people in Beijing to remain vigilant in the fight against SARS.

(Xinhua News Agency June 15, 2003)