Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's decision to step aside after a snap election left him unable to form a new government has let some steam out of a seven-month political crisis, but the drama is far from over.

The main opposition parties are boycotting by-elections on April 23 meant to complete last weekend's snap poll called by Thaksin to rout critics who accused him of corruption and abuse of power. They want political reforms first.

Most of the 39 seats, all but one in the southern opposition stronghold, could remain unfilled.

Only a full parliament can elect a new prime minister to replace Thaksin, but parliament must convene within 30 days of the April 2 poll.

Meanwhile, Thaksin says he will take "a rest" but retain leadership of his Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party, a move his enemies say will allow him to pull strings from behind the scenes.

Months of hard negotiations lie ahead and the outcome is uncertain.

Following are some possible scenarios:

Rolling by-elections

The Election Commission says re-runs in 39 constituencies are open to the three parties that boycotted the April 2 general election. The opposition wants meaningful political reforms first.

If the by-elections are inconclusive, the EC could ask the Constitutional Court to allow parliament to meet while more polls are held, analysts say.

But that could trigger protests against the court which has handed Thaksin two favorable rulings in the past.

"Whether the Constitutional Court, the involuntary power broker in the present political situation, would play along with the TRT remains to be seen," said Kim Eng Securities.

Protests resume

Street protesters outside Government House have packed up. But they left behind yet another ultimatum for Thaksin -- leave politics completely, or the protests resume on April 30.

"Thaksin will no longer be the prime minister, but he is still the leader of the party and will bring in his nominee to implement his policies, which we won't accept," media mogul and rally leader Sondhi Limthongkul said.

But April is the hottest month of the year and opinion polls show most Bangkok residents growing weary of the protests and the disruptions they cause.

Constitutional reform

Critics say the 1997 "People's" Constitution needs a rewrite to close loopholes used by Thaksin to undermine checks and balances and subvert the independence of watchdog agencies.

That process will take six months to a year and involve a "neutral" committee of former charter drafters, judges and legal experts, says Bhokin Bhalakula, the former speaker of parliament and lawyer who is likely to oversee the process.

The opposition has not spelled out what reforms it wants, but analysts say it may seek to curb the powers of the prime minister.

A rule requiring election candidates to belong to a party for 90 days -- designed to prevent the political bed-hopping that fostered shaky coalitions -- may also come under scrutiny by unhappy factions within Thaksin's party.

"There will be a nasty war during the political reform process as a lot of politicians want to change this 90-day rule," the Nation newspaper said.

Royal intervention

June 9 is a date that looms large in Thailand.

Thaksin cited King Bhumibol Adulyadej's 60th anniversary on the throne as the main reason for stepping aside ahead of celebrations to be attended by royalty from around the world.

"I ask every party, whether you love or hate me, to please think of the core of the country. The king," Thaksin said in urging Thais to reunite.

But by playing the "royal card," he put the ball in the opposition court to match the gesture to end the crisis before the royal anniversary.

"The king has been used as a reason for compromise and to restore stability," said Bob Broadfoot of Political and Economic Risk Consultancy.

"To me it implies that if they are not really careful, the opposition can overplay their hand because they are no longer going against Thaksin, they are going against the king."

Thaksin's future

Thaksin is down, but not out yet.

From his post as party leader, analysts say Thaksin is likely to wield power through a puppet successor, widely expected to be either Bhokin or Commerce Minister Somkid Jatusripitak.

"Government policy will remain the same under his guidance, and as head of the ruling party, he could exercise continued large scale authority, particularly if planned reforms to weaken the powers of the prime minister come to fruition," said Elizabeth Mills of Global Insight.

Other analysts say a key challenge will be holding together a political juggernaut that won the biggest majorities in Thai history.

"If they didn't have this 90-day rule, lots of people would have quit," said Christopher Bruton of Dataconsult Ltd.

"I'm sure we are going to see a lot of back-door negotiations in the coming weeks. Thai politics is very factional and its quite unnatural for a party like Thai Rak Thai to hold together in this way."
 
(Chinadaily.com via agencies April 7, 2006)