By Tao Wenzhao

 

President Hu Jintao will begin his state visit to the US next week. The visit is expected to have deep and far-reaching effects on the development of bilateral relations.

 

Sino-US relations have experienced numerous ups and downs, some quite dramatic, in the years since their normalization in 1979. As the two countries learn more and more about each other, neither is harboring unrealistic expectations for, or views about, the other any more and their relations are increasingly pragmatic.

 

The characteristics of bilateral ties between the two countries are as follows.

 

Bilateral relations are expanding.

 

Sino-US relations today are no longer focused just on bilateral issues, but on regional and global ones as well. As their relations develop and China's influence in regional and international affairs grows, regional and global issues are gaining prominence in dealings between the two countries.

 

China and the US have common interests in maintaining regional and world peace and stability. Currently the most prominent regional issue is the one concerning nuclear on the Korean Peninsula. The joint statement issued at last year's six-party talks in Beijing was an important result of joint efforts.

 

Though the fifth round of talks has stalled since its first stage ended in early November last year, the Chinese side is still trying hard to restart the meeting by pushing for reconciliation among bickering parties.

 

The global issues include anti-terrorism, preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and contagious diseases. In today's world, no country can avoid the threats posed by these problems by staying out of the heat, and the only way to face these global challenges is by international cooperation.

 

One particular problem at the moment is bird flu. It has cost the world 2 percent of its GDP so far and is still threatening the world as it spreads from country to country. Cooperation between the two countries on bird flu prevention was one of the focuses during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Organization summit in Pusan, South Korea, last November and also during US President George W. Bush's visit to China afterwards.

 

At the press conference held in Beijing following his meeting with President Bush, President Hu said the two countries' leaders had agreed to push forward all-round and constructive cooperation between the two countries, meaning they would strengthen cooperation on all kinds of issues.

 

This indicates the foundation of bilateral ties is expanding and will not let one particular problem or another wreck them. That will enable relations between the two countries to weather any adversity and remain stable for a relatively long time to come.

 

As a matter of fact, even bilateral issues have regional and global effects. Take economic and trade ties between the two countries for instance. China sustains an enormous trade deficit with Japan and South Korea while enjoying a favorable balance of trade with the US, because it imports a lot of semi-finished products from East and Southeast Asia and assembles them for export to the rest of the world, particularly to the US. If we look at the Sino-US trade issue from a global point of view, it will be easier to understand.

 

Bilateral relations are becoming more and more systematic.

 

First of all, summit meetings have become systematic. Since Bush became US president in 2001, the Chinese and US heads of state have met several times during formal visits to each other's country or on the side of international gatherings.

 

They were able to discuss all issues of mutual interest sincerely and frankly, learn more about each other and continuously inject fresh energy into the forward development of bilateral relations.

 

Now also systematic are joint committees on such matters as science and technology, economy, commerce and trade. Regular meetings of these joint committees have played an enormous role in promoting cooperation between the two countries in various fields.

 

Then there is the systematic cooperation in such areas as education, scientific research, environmental protection and natural disaster reduction. To be systematic is to be institutionalized. It provides a relatively stable basis for bilateral ties so that they will not be seriously shaken by some unexpected event or personnel change. This is a key indicator of development toward the maturity of bilateral ties.

 

The two countries are learning more about each other but, undeniably, still have misgivings about each other. China is suspicious of how the US treats its development, while the US is concerned about whether a developed China will try to push it out of East Asia and whether China will wrestle with it for East Asia and even world dominance.

 

Two recent documents reflect US misgivings about China. One is the 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review published by the Department of Defense in February, which describes China as the country with the biggest potential to compete against the US militarily and says that China is most likely to use destructive technology on the battlefield that will take away traditional US military advantage.

 

It also has a list of weapon systems that China could develop and details the measures the US should take to deal with them.

 

Then there is the National Security Strategy Report published in March, which devotes more pages to China than to any other country. It acknowledges that China has developed through one generation's efforts from poverty and isolation to integration with the world economic system. It also says that the US welcomes the peaceful rise of China, and that China can make important contributions to global prosperity. It says their mutual interests are guiding cooperation between the two countries in such areas as countering terrorism, containing arms proliferation, energy, epidemics prevention and environment.

 

However, it also raises many questions about China concerning its defense transparency, resources exploration strategy and political reform. All this proves the two countries still have misgivings about each other, though bilateral relations have been growing amid mutual suspicions in the past 27 years.

 

On the other hand, the existence of suspicions means the two countries need to conduct more exchanges and communications and pay more attention to the other's concerns and interests.

 

Today China and the US have reached the point where one country can no longer manage without the other's cooperation, be it in economy or security. And the two countries will continue to nurture their cooperation and mutual dependence while working on dissolving suspicions about each other.

 

Since last year, President Bush and other US decision-makers repeatedly described Sino-US relations as very complex. This writer agrees with that opinion. The complexity lies in the fact that none of the aspects of bilateral ties can be seen as pure cooperation or difference. Very often cooperation and difference coexist, but usually the former dwarfs the latter.

 

The ties between China and the US are among the most important bilateral relations for both countries. For they both benefit from peace and suffer from confrontation. It's a win-win or lose-lose situation. History has proved the two countries can make it win-win and mutually beneficial.

 

The author is a researcher with the Institute of American Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

 

(China Daily April 14, 2006)