By Liu Qiang

Fighting broke out in Lebanon after Hezbollah armed elements fired at Israeli targets and took two Israeli soldiers prisoner on July 12, hot on the heels of Hamas' abduction of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit on June 25, which triggered tension in Gaza Strip.

The escalating hostilities in Lebanon are straining the regional security situation to the limit.

Neither side shows any signs of backing down.

Hezbollah leaders claim that the two Israeli soldiers were taken prisoner in order to exchange them for top Hezbollah officials in Israeli jails and show support for Hamas.

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said: "We dream of peace. We do not seek war or a head-on confrontation. But, if necessary, we shall not flinch from them."

The military strikes reflect Israel's new strategic intentions, while exhibiting Olmert government's tough stance towards safeguarding the national interests of the Jewish state.

With retaliation as the point of departure, Israel tries to morally justify its military strikes, which were launched after Hezbollah first took the two Israeli soldiers prisoner.

Israel unleashed the military operations to rescue the two hostages and is uncompromising in doing so. This demonstrates to the Israeli public, the top authorities believe, the government's firm determination to safeguard the national interests at all cost, even risking the war. It was also aimed at exhibiting the competence and decisiveness of Olmert as the new prime minister. All this combines to serve as a rallying point for the national spirit of the Jewish state whose survival has ever been on the balance.

Also, Israel hopes that the military strikes will overawe extremist elements in the region and force the Lebanese and Syrian governments to rein in Hezbollah.

Despite the fact that Israel emerged victorious from previous Middle East wars, the security situations around the country has not improved fundamentally, with Hezbollah, Hamas and other radical Islamic organizations repeatedly staging assaults against Israeli targets.

Backed by its overwhelming military might, Israel launched the strikes in the hope of intimidating the extremist elements and putting heavy pressure on the Lebanese and Syrian governments.

The campaign is also meant to counterattack Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's "venomous verbal attacks" that Israel should be "wiped off the map." Iran is allegedly Hezbollah's financial underwriter.

The international community responded quickly after the hostilities started. The United Nations and the leaders of major world powers urged the parties involved to exercise the utmost restraint and stop the Middle East from plunging into a regional war.

The G8 Summit issued a joint statement on July 16, demanding that extremist elements immediately stop terror attacks against Israel.

But responses vary widely as different nations have different stances on the Middle East issue.

US President George W. Bush, for instance, said that Israel had the right for self-defence but warned that it refrain from toppling the Lebanese Government.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair said that the extremist elements backed by Iran and Syria should be condemned.

French President Jacques Chirac called on both Israel and Lebanon to exercise restraint and work for a ceasefire.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas warned that Israel's Lebanon offensive "is raising our fears of a new regional war" and urged world powers to intervene.

Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa said: "The Middle East peace process is dead." He suggested that the only way to restore the peace process would be to submit the matter to the United Nations Security Council.

Liu Zhenmin, China's deputy permanent representative to the United Nations expressed the Chinese Government's concern about the developments in Lebanon at the emergency session of the UN Security Council on July 14, appealing that all parties involved exercise utmost restraint and try to defuse the current crisis via diplomatic means.

Liu said that Israel's disproportionate use of force in Lebanon not only devastated the country's infrastructure and caused great harm to the Lebanese people, but also encroached upon Lebanese sovereignty and caused a severe humanitarian crisis.

In view of all this, the Chinese Government demanded that Israel stop its military offensive and lift its air and sea blockade of Lebanon. At the same time, Liu, on behalf of the Chinese Government, urged Hezbollah to stop firing rockets at Israeli cities and release the abducted Israeli soldiers as soon as possible.

Liu said that any further violent acts taken by any side could ignite the powder keg, referring to the extremely fragile security situation in the region. He warned that further violence would only serve to make an already bad situation even worse.

Judging from the current regional and international situations, it will take some time to end the military conflict in Lebanon.

First, the United States does not favor an immediate ceasefire.

The US position is that a ceasefire would be a temporary halt in hostilities, and what everyone wants is a solution that eliminates the threat posed by Hezbollah.

Second, Israel has not yet achieved its expected goals.

Third, Arab countries such as Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia said Hezbollah provoked the conflicts. Taking this into account, it would be difficult for Arab nations to face Israel as a united front.

In addition, Syria and Iran can do little but give verbal support to Hezbollah. Iran, in particular, is already caught in a diplomatic impasse over its nuclear program. It is therefore unlikely that Iran will take substantial steps to support Hezbollah militarily, risking economic sanctions from the United States and other Western countries or even military strikes from the United States and Israel. It calls for particular caution now that the United States already suspects that Iran has encouraged Hezbollah to provoke the conflicts with Israel in order to divert international pressure away from its nuclear program.

Israeli Prime Minister Olmert gave his conditions for a ceasefire in his speech delivered at the Knesset on July 17 the release of the abducted Israeli soldiers, Hezbollah stopping launching rockets at targets within Israel, and the deployment of Lebanese army along the Lebanon-Israel border.

In the opinion of this author, the ceasefire could not be put in place unless the United Nations sends peacekeeping forces to establish a buffer zone or a demilitarized zone between Israel and Lebanon, and, in addition, that all the conditions mentioned in the previous paragraph are met.

The consequences of the current conflicts will remain for a fairly long time to come, even if a ceasefire is brought about or brokered by international intermediaries. Military action should never be the first choice in maintaining regional peace in the Middle East. Dialogue should always be the preferred option. Retribution goes on and on in endless cycles if force is always used to settle disputes.

The author is the director of the Institute for International Relationship Studies affiliated to the Jiangsu Provincial Academy of Social Sciences.

(China Daily July 20, 2006)