Under the circumstances in which the United States enjoyed favorable climatic, geographical and human conditions during the 1991 Gulf War, the country made full use of the anti-Iraqi alliance to attack and disintegrate Iraq in the military and psychological aspects. The attempt to "topple Saddam" this time is no longer what it was before. Taking advantage of the anti-terrorism momentum, the United States wields the banner of "preemptive strikes", assuming the posture of casting aside other big powers and going its own way.

Known as a "war lion", Saddam Hussein was marshalling his soldiers in an orderly and methodical way. Today, Saddem is still in the presence of mind in the face of the "Down with Saddam War", he uses both internal and external policies to cope with the situation.

The United States served as the "savior" of the Arab world during the Gulf War and was accorded a "welcome with crowds lining the street" by Arab countries when it drove on to the Persian Gulf. Whereas this "Down with Saddam War" is obviously tinted with US "anti-terrorism chessboard" color, the uninvited United States was treated with disdain by the Arab Muslims.

The approaching "war against Saddam" is vastly different from the past "Desert Storm" war whether in terms of the balance of strength between the two sides, the operation of strategies and tactics, or postwar effects.

The magnitude of US forces sent to the Gulf region for the war of "overthrowing Saddam" is greatly different from what it was in the "Desert Storm", but the weapons allocated are much advanced than before, during the "Desert Storm", the United States easily organized a formidable anti-Iraqi alliance, most of the military expenditures (US$80 billion) was borne by the allies, but this time, the United States ready to "fight it alone" has to independently undertake the huge amount of expenses (US$50-60 billion). At present, taking advantage of the anti-terrorism opportunity, the United States wields the banner of "preemptive strikes".

The Deployment of Forces

In the period from the Gulf crisis triggered by Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in August 1990 to the eve of the outbreak of the Gulf War on January 15, 1991, the United States amassed a total of 415,000 troops in the Gulf area, 2,000 tanks, and more than 100 warships of various types including six aircraft carriers, each of which sent out nearly 1,400 operational aircraft, with a total force of 545,000 soldiers. In addition, the United States formed an extensive anti-Iraq alliance, involving over 1 million people from 36 countries, more than 3,700 tanks, over 4,000 armored cars, about 4,000 field artillery, 2,790 airplanes of various types, an excess of 2,000 helicopters and upwards of 210 war vessels of different types.

At present, in order to launch the war aimed to "oust Saddam", the US military is busy deploying troops in the Gulf area. Although numerically they are much smaller, the high-tech components of weaponry and equipment increase considerably. So far, the number of US and British land, sea and air forces in the Gulf area has reached 150,000 people, and around 400 airplanes have been disposed in the military bases in Turkey, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Bahrain.

In comparison, the weapons to be used in the war to "topple Saddam" this time are more advanced than those used during the Gulf War, these weapons mainly include accurate guided bombs, B1 strategic bombers, B2 contact bombers, hot-pressed bombs and FA 18E super-class bumblebee fighters.

War Expenditure

During the 1991 Gulf War, the United States got a war donation of US$54.5 billion provided by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Japan, Germany, United Arab Emirates and the Republic of Korea, the war cost US$80 billion, most of which was borne by these allies.

According to the estimate of Mitchell Daniels, bureau head in charge of administrative management and budgeting affairs, the expense needed for the war against Iraq this time ranges between US$50-US$60 billion, but the United States will have to independently undertake this huge sum of expense.

The Use of Tactics

During the "Desert Storm", under the circumstances of favorable climatic, geographical and human conditions, the United States organized a colossal anti-Iraq alliance without exerting much effort to attack and demoralize Iraq militarily and psychologically. The large-scale military action this time differs categorically from the previous Gulf War. On the one hand, with the exception of Britain, the firm supporter of impending US "war against Saddam", EU nations including France and Germany, as well as Russia all oppose the American projected use of force against Iraq under the circumstance without authorization from the United Nations, and they unanimously indicated that they would not participate in the war. On the other hand, the Arab world's voice in opposition to US military actions against Iraq is running high. Under this circumstance, the United States will have to face the situation of "fighting single-handedly". Taking advantage of the anti-terrorism struggle, it wields the banner of "preemptive strike", assuming the posture of casting aside other big powers and going it alone.

The United States dubs Iraq as an "axis of evils" country, and definitely accuses Iraq of possessing weapons of mass destruction and thus posing fatal threats to the "civilized society" of the West. At the same time, in order to avoid evoking strong reaction from the international community, particularly from the Arab world, America tries its best to assume the posture of seeking support from various quarters and solving the Iraqi issue through the "legal" channel of UN authorization. On the other hand, it concentrates its energy on actively preparing for war and makes preparation for postwar arrangements through supporting Iraqi opposition factions and other moves.

During the "Desert Storm", Iraq's "disposition of troops" was done in an orderly and methodical way before the war. Now in the face of a "down with Saddam war", the Saddam regime is still on the presence of mind and adopting both internal and external policies to cope with the situation.

During the Gulf War, Iraq mainly adopted five-faceted countermeasures:

First, constructing numerous underground defensive works and camouflage facilities and setting up many sham targets. After the outbreak of the war, these facilities played the role of preserving effective strength and dispersing the enemy's firepower;

Second, burning part of Kuwaiti oilfields to create black smoke and adversely affect US air raid effect. At the same time, the Iraqi troops stationed in Kuwait dumped oil into the sea along the coast of Kuwait, that led to the pollution of sea water, in an attempt to prevent the multinational troops from making sea landing and create difficulties in the use of water for Saudi Arabia and other countries;

Third, preparing "scud-B" and some launchers reserved for the improved "Hussein-type missiles launching and making full use of the characteristics of the flexibility of these launchers in war, this enabled Iraq to launch missiles to attack Israel and dodge the attack from US fighters and missiles;

Fourth, instigating international terrorist movement to attack the targets of US-led anti-Iraq allied countries stationed abroad and tie down US military actions in the Gulf; and

Fifth, carrying out "psychological war", posing frequent threats to the multinational troops that it would use chemical weapons and arms of mass destruction.

Today 12 years later, in the face of large US forces bearing down upon the border, the Saddam regime is still on the presence of mind and filled with common hatred for the enemy, adopting both internal and external policies to cope with the situation.

Internally, it increases national defense budget, Iraq increased national defense budget by about 35 percent in 2002 over 2001, and bought military equipment such as communication equipment, small weapons and tank spare parts from Serbia and other countries through some "secret channels"; through conducting military exchange and cooperation with some East European countries, Iraq has improved its air defense system and thus strengthened its air defense capability, and has made breakthroughs in missile technology, it can produce missiles by itself; it has re-deployed its land, sea and air forces, setting up "war zones" respectively on the south and north of Iraq and in the suburbs and city proper of the capital Baghdad, forming a "protective network" with one ring linked to another; it has dispersed and concealed its main pieces of military equipment (missiles, radar and airplanes), so as to avoid becoming the targets of US military accurate attacks; it properly preserved its refinery equipment and other important facilities by the method of "breaking up the whole into parts", and stored foods and medicines for urgent needs during wartime. In addition, Iraq also conducts extensive military training of the whole nation. And it is prepared to begin fighting "guerrilla war" once US military moves ground forces into the territory of Iraq.

Externally, Iraq adopts both tough and flexible countermeasures. On the one hand, it insists that there are no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, calling upon the international community to halt US possible military actions against Iraq; on the other hand, it actively coordinates with the United Nations Security Council at "crucial moment", submitting a report on the situation regarding Iraq's weapons and accepting the inspection team's examination, to avoid giving the United States a handle for the use of force.

In launching the Gulf war, the United States aimed to establish its hegemony in the Middle East, the intensified division of the Arab world at that time provided the United States a good opportunity to enter the Middle East. Whereas the United States' aim to launch a "war against Saddam" is to establish a pro-US regime in Iraq, but its practice of directing the spearhead right at terrorists in the capacity of moslems has filled us with doubt about whether it can realize its strategic intention.

The United States launching the Gulf War was nominally for "liberating Kuwait", actually it tried to establish its overlord-ship in the Middle East and even the whole world through mauling Iraq heavily. First, in order to set up a US-led new regional order in the Middle East, and ensure that the region become a stable "oil supply area" for the West, the United States worked out the Mid-east strategy known as promoting peace talks in the west and containing Iraq and Iran in the east. In regional security arrangements, it formed a regional security system with US garrison forces in the Gulf as the backing and six Gulf countries and Egypt as allies.

The American security arrangement was basically successful, the main reason for its consolidation in the Mid-east region was: The blasting fuse of the war was that Iraq committed aggression against its fraternal neighboring country, Kuwait, this move deeply hurt the Arab Muslims morally and sentimentally, made the United States change from "Satan" in their hearts into "Savior" overnight. The intensified split of the Arab world and their strengthened sense of distrust in each other provided a good opportunity for the United States to enter into the Middle East.

The war to "topple Saddam" manifestly carries US "anti-terrorism chessboard" color. The United States launched the Afghanistan war following the September 11 terrorist attacks. After gaining success in its military actions in rooting out Taliban and cleaning up the "Al-Qaeda network", the United States immediately directed its next counter-terrorist target at Iraq, its aim is to take the opportunity to get rid of Saddam, a thorn in its flesh, and establish a pro-US regime in Iraq, and harbor the intention to frighten other "rogue countries" in this region, there is also no lack of an attempt to push through democratization in the Middle East and integrate the Arab world, in the hope of thoroughly dispelling the worry about the "terrorist source".

If the US troops drove into the Gulf under the circumstance of a "welcome with crowds lining the street" given by the Arab countries in 1991, then this time the United States comes without being invited, what greets it will mostly be the contemptuous look of the Arab Muslims.

The reason for this is very simple, in launching the anti-terrorist war in retaliation of the "September 11" attacks, the United States directs the spearhead right at the terrorists with the Muslims capacity, so the anti-terrorist fight is inevitably tinted with a "civilized conflict" color, , thus deepening the worries of numerous Muslim countries in the Middle East and further exciting their anti-American sentiment. From the Arab countries' attitudes of rejecting an anti-terrorist alliance, in their one voice of protest against possible US military attack on Iraq, as well as a series of phenomena such as the fact that Saudi Arabia and some other countries which were previously "steadfast "allies" of the United States but now no longer generously permit the United States to use their military bases, we cannot but are full of doubts about whether US strategic intention can be realized after "the oust of Saddam from office".

(People's Daily January 22, 2003)