When Democrats started their presidential campaign last winter, they made two assumptions: foreign policy would be the driving force of President George W. Bush's reelection drive, while economy his weakness.  

Plans seem always to lag behind changes. Statistics have showed that US economy has picked up and the momentum is expected to continue in 2004 while the Iraq issue, core of the Bush administration's foreign policy, which some analysts say is a two-edged sword -- makes or breaks Bush.     

Economy in Bush’s favor

In the beginning of this year, Bush had been remaining a target of attacks on his economic policy. In the first quarter, the growth rate of US economy was only 1.4 percent.

Democratic presidential hopefuls said since Bush took office in early 2001, more than 2 million jobs were lost while the stock market was down trillions of dollars in paper wealth. In addition, the government, which had US$237 billion in surplus in 2000, faced a record deficit of US$374.2 billion for the 2003 fiscal year ending Sept. 30.

However, since the second quarter of this year, the economy has shown signs of resurgence, with the government reporting an annual growth rate of 8.2 percent in the third quarter, the fastest pace in nearly two decades. Many people expect it to march forward at apace of 4 percent or even more in the last quarter.

The US National Association for Business Economics (NABE) said in its most recent prediction in late November that the US gross domestic product (GDP) would grow by 4.5 percent in 2004. Should this forecast come true, it would be another record since the US economy surged by 7.3 percent in 1984.

Iraq, weapon of both Democrats and Republicans

The Democrats while arguing that Bush has performed rather poorly in jobs creation began to shift their attacks against Bush on Iraq, an area in which now he is seemingly bogged down.

With no alleged weapons of mass destruction discovered in Iraq, they questioned the Bush administration' rationale for going to war, which has left nearly 200 US soldiers dead in Iraq and more exposed to the danger. They criticized Bush for unilateralism and lack of an exit strategy.

They hit the needle. US soldiers are facing mounting and scaling-up attacks, with coalition casualties rising daily. At the same time, US efforts to convince more countries to contribute troops to Iraq yielded little results. And the fact that no one can tell where is the end of the deadly game is washing away soldiers and voters' patience.

Watershed seemed to come as ousted Iraqi President Saddam Hussein was captured alive on Dec. 13.

Many believed that Saddam's arrest will boost morale of the US soldiers in Iraq and confidence of Americans at home, and it can be seen as one of Bush's big victories in his presidential career.     

A poll released on Dec. 17 by New York Times/CBS News found that Bush's overall approval rating rose six points to 58 percent, the highest since last July, and also higher than the 52 percent in the four days before Saddam's arrest.

Both the Democrats and the Republicans have immediately been adapted to the situation after Saddam's capture and the recent economic indicators, and are trying to position themselves on the right side of the issues, as they know that voters are likely to be influenced by the two issues.

Saddam's capture is very good news for Bush. But Bush can't count on the overwhelming victory over Saddam for good. Iraq's development in the coming months before the US presidential election in November 2004 is equally important to Bush and his Democrat rivals.

Analysts said with the political environment at home and abroad not set, strategic planning has become a tough job for Bush and his nine Democratic rivals.

They also said whatever a political environment will be, one thing is clear: voters will favor a candidate who convinces them that he can make them safer.

(Xinhua News Agency December 24, 2003)