It has been reported that US President George W. Bush will soon announce an executive order to establish an independent commission to investigate the intelligence the White House was given prior to the invasion of Iraq last spring. 

Bush had earlier opposed setting up such a panel and said any independent investigation would be unreasonable unless a complete weapons inspection in Iraq is concluded. The inspection, however, is expected to last at least one more year.

The Iraq War underlines the fact that any possible "miscalculations" in intelligence information by the world's lone superpower can completely alter the fate of other members of the global community.

As its main reason for going to war against Iraq, the United States cited intelligence that indicated Saddam Hussein's regime possessed and was developing weapons of mass destruction (WMD). But so far no evidence to support that information has surfaced -- despite the best efforts of an army of US operatives who scoured Iraq for months.

There have been strong condemnations within the United States that the White House exaggerated the threat posed by alleged Iraqi WMD, along with repeated calls for an investigation over the pre-war intelligence gathering process.

The establishment of such a panel could lead to uncovering the inside story of the Bush administration's decision-making in opting to go to war.

However, the belated call for an investigation is obviously the result of Bush's consideration for this year's presidential election, rather than any soul-searching over ethics.

The absence of evidence about Iraqi WMD, combined with Bush's deaf ears to domestic calls for an independent investigation, has already posed a serious challenge to his credibility -- the most dangerous thing for a presidential candidate in an election year.

The recent astonishing words of David Kay, the chief US weapons hunter in Iraq who resigned in January, also contributed to Bush's announcement.

Last week Kay told a congressional panel "we were almost all wrong" in assuming that Iraq had banned WMD.

Kay, who spent months hunting for the alleged WMD, should have a larger say than Bush in judging whether or not Baghdad had such weapons.

For the sake of conscience, Kay has stated what he saw and heard in Iraq. But his words delivered another heavy blow to Bush's already fragile credibility.

It appears Bush is prepared to risk making the decision to investigate if that decision will help him win re-election.

For him, that's all that matters -- particularly since any investigation won't be concluded before the election.

(China Daily February 3, 2004)