Elections for a new Iraqi government would be possible by January 2005 -- but only if preparations begin immediately, the United Nations said in a report released Monday.  

Lakhdar Brahimi, the UN secretary-general's envoy to Iraq, warned of increased violence and ethnic strife unless Iraq's leaders and the US-led coalition get Iraqis' acceptance for a way forward.

His report followed a weeklong mission earlier this month by a team of UN experts who were essentially asked to resolve a dispute between the United States and Iraqi clerics on the best way to restore sovereignty to Iraq.

The team said there wasn't enough time for national elections by a June 30 deadline. Iraqis led by cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Husseini al-Sistani had wanted a direct vote as soon as possible.

The preferred US option of holding a series of national caucuses to elect a transitional legislature would be too easy to manipulate to be credible, the team said. Under intense opposition from Iraqis, the United States has since backed away from that idea.

The report said that if preparations began immediately, Iraq would need until May 2004 to create the necessary legal and political framework for elections. It would then need another eight months to prepare for the elections on the ground -- meaning elections could by held by January 2005.

Brahimi's report underscores that Iraqis and the US-led coalition must find a solution they both believe in, or the election process could backfire and turn simmering ethnic tensions into outright sectarian violence.

"We have made very clear with Mr. Brahimi that everybody has to buy into this process if the process is to be stable," said Carina Perelli, a UN expert on the mission to Iraq. "It's not just a game for a few actors, it's a game for all the Iraqi citizens."

Brahimi noted the daunting task Iraq faces because it has no viable recent census, only one from 1997 that was widely believed to be manipulated, and Iraqi law is even unclear on what it means to be a citizen. But in a note of optimism, he said there is strong will among Iraqis for healthy political system and says Iraq is "a dynamic place, full of ideas and political arguments."

L. Paul Bremer, the lead US administrator in Iraq, welcomed the report, calling it "a constructive contribution" toward the transition to Iraqi sovereignty, according to a statement released in Baghdad. He reaffirmed the June 30 deadline would be met.

The report leaves open the question of how to turn over power to Iraqis by that date, however.

The Bush administration has been hoping that the United Nations would endorse the idea of extending and expanding the US-picked Iraqi Governing Council so it can take interim control of the country on June 30.

The report lists that as one of several options, but Brahimi's spokesman Ahmad Fawzi made clear the report was not the forum for making such a recommendation. Instead, he said, the United Nations was ready to help the party's decide how to put a transitional government in place by June 30.

"We were not asked to give an opinion on the framework of the body that sovereignty would be transferred to," Fawzi said. "That's another issue. If they want us to help with that, the report says we would be willing to do so."

The UN report now goes to Iraqi authorities and the Coalition Provisional Authority for their feedback.

One UN official, speaking on condition of anonymity Monday, said Brahimi would probably head to Iraq next month to help come up with a solution if Iraqis and the coalition can't find one.

Brahimi notes in the report that if the United Nations is to play a large role, the coalition and Iraq's Governing Council would need to act more quickly on providing security for a return of UN workers. UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan pulled all non-Iraqi UN workers out of the country last year after devastating suicide bombings at the Baghdad UN headquarters.

Also Monday, members of the Iraqi Governing Council said US and Iraqi officials will delay an agreement on the status of US military forces in the country until after power is handed over to an Iraqi government. The status of forces agreement was due to be reached by the end of March, defining the role of US troops in the country after the US-led occupation comes to an end and the Iraqis take sovereignty.

But council member Adnan Pachachi said the US-picked 25-member council, which serves as a temporary Iraqi administration, "is not considered sufficiently representative" to make the decision.

Underscoring the tensions, a senior Iraqi cleric warned earlier Monday that delaying national elections would be a "time bomb that could explode at any minute."

"Without elections, our national institutions will remain shaken, unrecognized and distrusted by the people," Grand Ayatollah Mohammed Taqi al-Modaresi told reporters in the Shiite holy city of Karbala in central Iraq.

The uncertainty "makes us fear for the future of Iraq" and the possibility of "civil war," he said.

(China Daily February 24, 2004)