The expected blowout in the tourism market is unlikely in the upcoming National Day holidays, dashing hopes of domestic travel agencies in the Golden Week.

The number of tourists who have applied to join overseas tourism groups in the week-long holidays is only about 60 to 70 percent of that in the same period last year with most routes witnessing declines, according to a report in the Beijing Times.

The tourism sector, which suffered heavy losses because of the SARS outbreak, had pinned high hopes on the holidays to get back into the black.

Many travel agencies started preparations and promotions in August. In the previous several years, the two week-long holidays, the May Day holidays from May 1 to May 7 and the National Day holidays from October 1 to October 7, were the hottest tourism seasons in the mainland.

"But the applications this year are far from our expectations," said Dun Jidong of the China Travel Service's overseas tourism department. "Travel agencies had expected an extremely hot tourism market during the holidays."

Last year, the company signed up 3,000 tourists for overseas trips during the National Day holidays; Dun said this year the number will be about 70 percent of that.

Dun's company is not the only one disappointed. China International Travel Service's National Tourism Department also predicted a 30 percent to 40 percent fall in the number going overseas.

Domestic tours, too, are not as popular as expected.

By Tuesday, the average hotel booking rate in Haikou, capital of Hainan Province and a popular tourism spot, was 10 percentage points lower than that in the same period of last year. In Sanya, only about 60 percent of hotel rooms are booked, 15 percentage points down.

The number of tourists to Hong Kong will also fall below forecasts as prices have rebounded strongly from August.

After the SARS outbreak ended in the mainland, Hong Kong launched major promotions to restore its severely-battered tourism industry; and the lowest price even touched 1,400 yuan (US$169) for a four-day visit.

Meanwhile, since September 1, residents in cities like Shanghai and Beijing have been able to apply for tourism visas to Hong Kong on an individual basis, instead of joining tour groups as before.

But the new measure has failed to stimulate as much demand as expected.

"The number (of people applying to go to Hong Kong) has fallen far short of earlier predictions," said Han Xiaohu, manager of the China Travel Service's Hong Kong and Macao department.

He revealed that since September 1, only 3,000 people in Beijing applied for individual visas to Hong Kong.

Many who have secured visas are waiting for the price to drop again since the visa is effective for up to three months.

According to estimates of the Hong Kong tourism department, a total of 280,000 mainland tourists will flock to the SAR during the Golden Week.

Industry insiders attributed the less-than-expected enthusiasm to exaggerated expectations of travel agencies and rebounding prices, which are 20-40 percent higher during the holidays than in August.

Moreover, promotions in August enabled travelers to enjoy record low prices, which generated most of the demand.

According to a recent survey by the Social Survey Institute of China of 1,000 residents in big cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Wuhan and Guangzhou, about half plan to travel during the period; but 69.1 perent said they would select short-distance tours and only 6.6 percent chose long-distance trips while the remaining 24.3 percent chose to travel to Hong Kong and Macao.

(China Daily September 25, 2003)