This followed the island's failure to gain observer status at the international organization.

Obviously, Chen's real purpose is to distract the attention of Taiwan's public away from his incapacity to fight SARS on the island so that he can achieve his goal of struggling for Taiwan independence and for re-election.

The pro-independence bloc expressed its support for Chen's proposal. The "executive yuan" said a referendum is technically feasible, indicating the possibility of holding a consultative referendum on joining the WHO together with next year's "presidential" election.

The ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the Taiwan Solidarity Union hailed the passage of the first reading of a referendum draft bill in the "legislative yuan" and gave a class-A mobilization order to their members to support the bill in order to solve the problem of the lack of a legislative basis for a referendum.

However, the pro-reunification bloc criticized Chen's proposal as "ridiculous."

The Kuomintang (KMT) said it saw no legislative basis for any referendum and thought it was absurd to hold a referendum together with next year's "presidential" election, which would be a waste of taxpayers' money.

The People First Party stressed that Chen made his proposal merely out of consideration for next year's election. The party said the point was not whether or not Taiwan could join the WHO but that it was a question of the ruling authorities' capability.

In addition, Chen's proposal was also criticized by Taiwan's media as "irrelevant" and "meaningless."

The major reasons why Chen is vigorously trying to sell the idea of a referendum are as follows:

First, he wants to divert the focus of the public on the island from the poor performance of his administration.

Chen has had little credit to claim in his political career since he assumed office three years ago.

The per capita income of Taiwan people was last year 9 per cent lower than it was in 2000 and the number of unemployed had increased by 222,000. This situation poses a serious challenge to Chen's re-election campaign.

Second, Chen wants to invigorate his stagnant campaign for re-election by playing the populist card.

Since the Kuomintang's Lien Chan and the People First Party's James Soong formed an alliance to run for the "presidency," Chen's support rating has lagged far behind theirs in opinion polls.

Moreover, the pro-reunification bloc frequently criticizes Chen for his failure to soundly develop cross-Straits relations, which has put great pressure on the "president."

Chen attributed the rapid spread of SARS to the loopholes in Taiwan's epidemic-prevention system, which he said resulted from the island's failure to join the WHO because of pressure from the Chinese mainland.

Furthermore, the Taiwan authorities irrationally refused a donation of medical materials offered by the mainland.

Therefore, promoting a referendum on joining the WHO is a plot by Chen to arouse populism within the island. He tries to give the public a false impression that it was "suppression" by the mainland that led to the current serious situation. His move was aimed to help undermine support for the pro-reunification bloc and revive the sagging morale of his own campaign.

Third, Chen wants to consolidate reliable votes by placating the "fundamentalists" within the DPP.

The pro-independence "fundamentalists" within that party are not satisfied with Chen's rule. Chen's attempt to promote a referendum on bidding for WHO membership is in fact aimed at providing a legislative basis for a referendum on Taiwan independence and on establishing an independent Taiwan state. This, of course, is supported by the separatists, whose votes thus can be further ensured.

Nevertheless, only sovereign states are qualified to join such institutions of the United Nations as the WHO. As a part of China, Taiwan is of course unqualified. No country or individual has the right to invite Taiwan to join the WHO even as an observer. This has already been the consensus reached by the majority of the international community.

This situation is the root cause of Taiwan's repeated failure to squeeze into the WHO. It has nothing to do with holding a referendum or not.

Even if the result of a referendum backing joining the WHO, the international consensus that only sovereign states can join the WHO would remain unchanged and Taiwan would be unable to achieve its objective.

It would be even more absurd if the Taiwan authorities sought to legitimize Taiwan independence through a referendum. The legal status of Taiwan as a part of Chinese territory is indisputable, both in terms of domestic law and international law. This is widely recognized by the international community.

The legislation for a referendum can scarcely be passed in a short time as the pro-reunification bloc holds more than half of the votes in the "legislative yuan."

There are even different opinions within the pro-independence bloc on the proposed referendum.

The Taiwan Solidarity Union emphasizes "referendum legislation first and a referendum later." It regards the timing of Chen's referendum proposal as improper when everybody is concentrating on dealing with SARS.

Some DPP legislators are opposed to holding a "consultative referendum" without a legislative basis, arguing that it would affect next year's "presidential" election.

Furthermore, the United States constitutes another factor that is restraining Taiwan from holding a referendum. Washington has never supported a referendum by Taiwan, out of consideration for its own strategic interests in the Taiwan Straits.

The author is a researcher with the Institute of Taiwan Studies under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

(China Daily June 19, 2003)