China's population will peak at 1.5 billion in the mid-2030s,
experts predict.
According to a research report released yesterday, the
population will begin to gradually drop after reaching the
peak.
Meanwhile, the number of new-born baby boys will continue to
outstrip that of baby girls, with 119 boys for every 100 girls,
according to the national population development strategy research
report.
The ratio has remained stable, with a national census six years
ago yielding roughly the same figure, but is still worrying,
according to the report.
The internationally recognized normal ratio is 103-107 of one
sex against 100 of the other. But in China, for every 100 new born
baby girls, there were 109 baby boys in 1982, and 111 in 1990.
Foetus gender identification and non-medical abortion, which
continue despite being illegal, are blamed for the unbalanced
gender figures.
A draft of a revision to the Criminal Law, which was discussed
by the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress late
last year and this April, proposes that those who help identify the
gender of a foetus for non-medical purposes face criminal
charges.
Approved by the State Council, the report aimed to investigate
population development trends, as well as the relationship between
population, the economy, resources and the environment.
More than 300 scholars, including 11 academicians, spent two
years compiling the report, which also involved more than 70
governmental departments and organizations.
Their research won an award yesterday at a national conference
on population and family planning.
"China has now entered its fourth birth peak," said Jiang Fan,
vice director of the National Population and Family Planning
Commission, yesterday. The previous three peaks occurred in 1949,
1962 and 1987.
China's population stood at 1.307 billion in late 2005,
according to census figures.
The research report urged the government not to change current
population policies.
In the coming 30 years the average fertility rate will be about
1.8 children for every woman, it said.
"A higher or lower fertility rate is not beneficial for economic
and social development in China," it added.
China's labor forces will become the largest in history in the
next 30 years, said Chen Li, director of the national population
development strategy research project.
(China Daily June 23, 2006)