Saudi Arabia on the move
- By Sajjad Malik
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E-mail China.org.cn, June 22, 2017
As expected for quite some time, King Salman bin Abdulaziz has finally taken the decision about who should be his successor. The choice is his 31-year old energetic son Mohammed bin Salman, also known as MBS, who has already eclipsed all other royals to emerge as the new assertive face of Saudi Arabia.
The King issued a royal decree to remove his nephew Mohammed bin Nayef, 57, from the line of succession as Crown Prince, while he promoted Prince Mohammed from position of Deputy Crown Prince.
In the process, the King has transferred the kingship of the oil-rich conservative Islamic kingdom into his descendants.
According to the Saudi Press Agency, 31 out of 34 members of Saudi Arabia's Allegiance Council chose Mohammed bin Salman as the new crown prince. The Allegiance Council was set up by former King Abdullah to oversee and ensure hassle-free successions.
Saudi media reported that former Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef has accepted the decision and showed allegiance to his junior but rival cousin. A video showed the former strongman meeting with Prince Mohammed and the latter showing a lot of traditional respect towards the former Crown Prince.
Nayef was well known in Western capitals for his war on terror as interior minister of the country. But he was also relieved of his positon as the interior minister and the chief law-enforcer.
It is an historic moment for Saudi Arabia as for the first time the new King would not be a son of King Abdulaziz, the founder of the kingdom, who had several male children. Some of them have already died while others are too old to carry the burden of the head of country. The question has been decided now and the so-called "Sudairi Seven" have carried the day. The famed group consists of seven sons of King Abdulaziz from one of his wives, Hussa Sudairi. The seven full brothers were considered as extremely powerful within the hierarchy of the country.
Former King Fahad was the eldest of seven and served as king from 1982 to 2005. The current King Salman is one of the seven brothers. Many experts had predicted that the next line of kings would be from the Sudairi brothers.
The peaceful settlement of the issue will have a huge impact on the country and the region. The kingdom is a key cog in the current security and economic structure of the Middle East.
It cannot afford any kind of domestic bickering or weakness over the issue of a future potentate while facing multiple challenges. Also, being the biggest oil producer, its internal security is vital for the world.
The rise of the thick-bearded and English-speaking MBS was methodically choreographed. Since he burst onto the scene more than two years ago, the young prince has been visiting countries, receiving foreign dignitaries and initiating major internal and external policy decisions.
As the defense minister, he launched the war on Yemen in 2015, cobbled together an alliance of armies of Islamic countries – the so-called Muslim Nato – to fight militancy and orchestrated long-term measures to change the economic status of the country.
Despite having all of the advantages which one can dream of, the young prince has so far little to showcase his achievements. The Yemen war has made little headway and the Islamic alliance has not been shaped into a war machine even after two years since its announcement.
Similarly, the civil war in Syria is not going according to plan and the rebels supported by Saudi Arabia to affect a regime change have not performed as per the expectations. In a classical blowback, groups like the Islamic State have been strengthened and are now staring the kingdom in the eyes.
The impact of domestic policies like reducing subsidies and partially privatizing oil giants like Saudi Aramco have yet to be seen and calculated.
The new sanctions against Qatar have also not shown signs of progress as Qatar has the support of Iran and Turkey. It also has deep resources, thanks to the uninterrupted sale of gas, to skirt off the pressure applied by Saudi Arabia.
Mohammed bin Salman has crossed the first hurdle. But he will have to work hard to convince the world and Saudis back home that he can lead the country.
Sajjad Malik is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:
http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/SajjadMalik.htm
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