Nepal's far cry of bridging India and China
- By Saroj Gautam
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E-mail China.org.cn, September 15, 2017
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Prime Minister of Nepal Sher Bahadur Deuba [Xinhua] |
Recently, Qatar, a tiny Gulf nation, faced an unprecedented economic embargo by its neighbors. The ideologue of the embargo, Saudi Arabia, wants to shut up Qatar's Aljazeera media network, forcefully demanding (the latter) to change its foreign policy which allegedly opens the space for terrorism.
In 2015, South Asian nation Nepal had also faced the same fate from its neighbor India, a nation that proclaims itself to be the largest democracy in the world. The Indian dismay was with Nepal's constitution promulgated through the popularly elected Constituent Assembly.
New Delhi’s advice to Nepali leaders not to promulgate the constitution on the date, was shunned, resulting in a major ego blow to the “South Block,” with India subsequently imposing a blockade to paralyze the earthquake hit landlocked neighbor.
There is one striking similarity between these two separate episodes of blockades.
That is the “sin” of a small country trying to act independently differing the guided way of its big bullying neighbor. Both blockades were imposed citing an internal affair.
India has continuously misused its geographical proximity to Nepal by meddling in Nepal’s social, cultural and political circumstances by trying to establish itself as a director of Nepal’s internal affairs.
India even used a blockade as a cheap means to squeeze the small neighbor. And more bizarre, despite a continuous hostile attitude from its side, India is visibly scared of losing influence of Nepal to China.
The Indian media narrative tries to establish a “false fact” that China is trying to surround India by tightening its grip in the Indian neighborhood and growing Chinese influence in Nepal.
The outcry of the Indian media (which remained relatively indifferent to Nepalese suffocation during the blockade) was worth watching when Nepal’s PM KP Sharma Oli reached China seeking for an alternative to petroleum supplies and the nearest sea link following the Indian blockade. Prior to that India became ready to welcome Oli to New Delhi by releasing the blockade as he threatened to make maiden foreign trip to China.
Indian paranoia tracks back to the time of BP Koirala, the first directly elected prime minister of Nepal who was advised in New Delhi by his Indian counterpart Jawaharlal Nehru not to visit Beijing.
When it comes to Nepal’s connectivity with China, Indian dragon phobia surfaces in various ugly forms. During his India visit, some eight years ago, Nepal’s former PM Puspa Kamal Dahal “Prachanda” had proposed for a trilateral cooperation between China, Nepal and India but was bluntly downed by the Indian side quoted as saying the time was not ripe for such cooperation.
Though no any substantial efforts have been made from Nepal to materialize its proposal during the past eight years, Prachanda raised the issue again during a “coincidental trilateral” meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian PM Narendra Modi on the sidelines of BRICS in October 2016.
The pictures of the three leaders sitting together sparked a great interest on social and mainstream media after Prachanda’s aide posted it on social media. No sooner the news went viral, Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs rushed to rebuff the news and termed it rather just a “coincidence” not “trilateral” as such.
Indian special reservation with the term “trilateral” reflects its unusual nervousness towards it. Yet the Nepali side has a strong belief that it has got a large ground of bridging China and India in the long run and sooner or later it is going to turn into reality. The best part is: The Chinese side has already welcomed Nepal’s idea.
Nepal's Ambassador to China Leela Mani Paudyal thinks that despite its reluctance, India is eager to link itself with China through Nepal because in his opinion otherwise it wouldn't have asked Nepal for direct transit to Tibet in 2005. He opines it ultimately means that India can't go against the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and trilateral cooperation in the long run.
Professor Hu Shisheng, director of the Beijing-based Institute of South and Southeast Asian and Oceanian Studies at China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, has the opinion that, "Nepal could serve as a gateway and provide China and other South Asian countries a way to interact. Nepal’s prosperity through the BRI would eventually entice the people of India to participate in the initiative as well. However, initially it is advisable that China and Nepal undertake bilateral projects, and then move on to trilateral projects.” (Kathmandu Post May 15, 2017)
Despite the wide ranging prospects of such cooperation, two basic questions are yet unanswered. First, whether Nepal is clear about the abstract trilateral cooperation or does it have any strategic concept for such cooperation and second, whether China is willing to convince India on behalf of Nepal.
The first question is complex to answer because Nepali leaders don’t have any shared concept on what kind of trilateral cooperation and Nepal’s position in it. Unfortunately Nepali rulers have failed to convince China that Nepal genuinely wants to connect to China.
If we observe the recent “OPED” pages of Chinese English dailies, it is reflected that China has a serious doubt on Nepal's stance. Some thinkers in China feel Nepal gets closer to China only seasonally when there is bullying from India but it has no serious desire to link up with China despite recently becoming a party to the BRI.
The next major hindrance is poor physical connectivity between Nepal and China. After the 2015 earthquake, the major trade between China and Nepal is dependent on India either through the sea link or land as the major border link Tatopani remains closed. And it is not clear whether Nepal or China is interested to open the most entertained Tatopani border in the soonest possible time. The question comes how we can expect strong economic ties with China, given our geographical link has been so poor. So, the first priority should be increasing accessibility to Chinese cross border links.
Many thinkers share one idea that the geographical adversity has never been a major question between China and Nepal, it is all about willingness.
The second question requires a more complex answer because India and China share major trade in South Asia. Nepal, despite its strategic importance, is almost a negligible partner in terms of business and trade from the point of view of China. Some thinkers in Nepal believe that China may not be ready to cost the trade prospect with India by incorporating Nepal in between. If China is not willing to convince India on behalf of Nepal, the trilateral cooperation will always remain a far cry for Nepal.
Saroj Gautam writes on international relations and diplomacy from Kathmandu.
Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors only, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.
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