Trumping the Iran nuclear deal

By Sajjad Malik
0 Comment(s)Print E-mail China.org.cn, October 17, 2017
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Who says President Donald Trump has failed to fulfill his promises? So far, he has ripped up the Tran-Pacific Partnership agreement, withdrawn from the Paris climate deal, walked out of UNESCO (I'm not sure if that was among his election promises) and remains committed to building a wall along the Mexican border.

The latest addition to the list of achievements is a clear intention to abandon the nuclear deal with Iran, and provide an opportunity for the Islamic republic to restart proliferation activities, and possibly recreate direct conflict with Tehran.

The deal was reached in 2015 after years of disagreement and feuding over the nuclear intentions and capabilities of Iran. The final agreement provided a robust system of verification to check its nuclear ambitions in return for economic sanctions easing.

It was a major success of multilateral diplomacy, involving the U.S., China, Russia, Germany, U.K. and France. The final draft of the agreement gained unanimous support from all participants.

Disregarding the opinions of the other stakeholders, Trump has refused to recertify the deal, a mandatory practice every 90 days. He did certify it twice, before saying a definite no when certification was due up for the third time since he took the office. The matter now goes to Congress, which has 60 days to decide the fate of the nuclear deal.

All participants, minus the U.S., have expressed support for continuation of the deal. Iran has also expressed willingness to abide by it. The IAEA has said it is so far satisfied with Iran's behavior, which had been fulfilling all obligations under the deal.

Trump was critical of several steps taken by his predecessor Barack Obama, which could be termed part of his "legacy" if allowed to continue for longer period. Obamacare and the Iran nuclear deal are two leading examples from the previous administration's domestic and foreign policies. Trump had long disliked both, and vowed to reverse them.

He is still stuck in the process of trying to rewrite the health care laws, and his efforts to wriggle out of the nuclear deal may suffer the same fate if Congress shows the kind of maturity and authority one expects from American lawmakers.

However, the problem with the nuclear deal is that Israel and Saudi Arabia have been against it from day one, lobbying hard with American officials and power brokers for its cancellation. Saudi King Salman has also called Trump to support his tough message to Iran.

Since Congress is not free from the influence of well-connected and powerful lobbyists, opposition to Trump's efforts may not be as stubborn as in the case of Obamacare. The deal would be effectively dead for America if Congress sided with the president.

So, it would be up to the remaining participants to show some true grit and stand up for the agreement, showing the kind of resolve seen among leading countries when Trump withdrew from the environmental Paris deal.

Trump is trying to create new norm in unilateralism. It is time for other powers to resist this trend, because, if allowed to become a settled practice, the world system could easily crumble if other nations decided to follow suit.

The international system is based on consensus among the big powers. The United States is still the biggest power but it cannot write the laws governing global politics. Unilateralism is just dangerous as the Trump notion of preemptive strikes.

It is not good for America, which in the past opposed unilateral policies by others. Not long time ago, the U.S. leaders were in the forefront in opposing the annexation of Crimea by Russia through unilateral action ignoring world opinion.

Hence, it is important that Trump should avoid actions which would put Iran on a war path. If he needs any reminder, he should remember the invasion of Iraq by George Bush in complete disregard of domestic and international opinion. It created a rift with European allies and dealt a blow to American prestige.

Sajjad Malik is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:

http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/SajjadMalik.htm

Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.

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