Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) issued a composite index of leading economic indicators on December 10, 2012, showing that major economies are taking different paths to growth.
China's composite leading indicators (CLI) stayed at 99.5 from June to September of 2012, and in October, they rose to 99.6, showing a trend of recovered growth. The report concludes that the Chinese economy is showing an upward turning point.
Figures released by China's National Bureau of Statistics on December 9 may have contributed to the increased optimism in Asian markets the following day. According to Morgan Stanley Capital International, stocks in the Asia-Pacific region (except Japan) rose by 0.2 percent, which was the highest closing price since August 2011.
Overseas media and insiders think the rise, as well as hike in oil prices, are results of the Chinese economy's rapid and continuous development.
Quan Dejian, an economic analyst with Singapore's United Overseas Bank, told People's Daily that China's economic statistics have boosted confidence in the Asian market.
On December 10, 2012, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index rose by 1.07 percent, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose by 0.39 percent, Singapore's Straits Times Index rose by 0.5 percent, Australia's S&P/ASX200 Index rose by 0.14 percent and Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Index rose by 0.07 percent. Apart from the stock exchanges, oil prices were also high. The futures price of crude oil from Brent Oil, which is due in January, rose by about 0.8 percent.
Bloomberg reported statistics of China's value-added industry and sales show that the country's economic growth is accelerating. Moreover, unemployment statistics in the United States are unexpectedly falling, good news providing encouragement for rising Asian stocks. Due to China's gradual economic recovery, the capital market is reportedly showing a more sustainable rebound. The financial market is also going upward thanks to greater confidence in the Chinese economy. Stocks in emerging economies kept going up for four days. China's economic growth will benefit the majority of countries on the world, said a Malaysian analyst.
According to Quan, statistics for September and October of 2012 show China's economy has rebounded. Statistics for November show this trend is continuing. China's industrial output value, investments and consumption are growing at ideal rates.
The Wall Street Journal reported on December 10, 2012, the newly issued statistics show that the Chinese economy's rebound keeps strengthening the good momentum. It believes that China's manufacturing is rising and the country's economy is at the prime period of rapid growth and low inflation. Since September 2012, the growth of several indices concerning the Chinese economy tells that the deceleration of the Chinese economy has come to the end.
The UK's Financial Times reported on December 10, 2012, after seven quarters' economic slowdown, the world's second largest economy seems to have rebounded moderately at the end of 2012. This should mainly be attributed to loose monetary policy and the government's measures to greatly increase investments in infrastructure. At a time when the European economy is shrinking and the U.S. economy is sluggish, China is relatively attractive.
Quan said China's upward and stable economic development is good news for Asia. Recently, Chinese leaders expressed that China would make efforts to boost domestic demand, which is a positive news to other Asian economies. Most Asian economies have an export-oriented economic mode, but global exports sagged in 2012. While old export destinations have problems, Asian countries have to turn to emerging markets. The stable growth of the Chinese economy will have a positive impact on other Asian countries.
Recent years have seen frequent trade activities between China and Southeast Asia. According to statistics from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), in 2000, the Chinese mainland was the destination for only 4 percent of ASEAN's total exports, while in 2011, the number jumped to 11.5 percent. China has already become an important export destination for ASEAN countries, and the proportion is predicted to rise to 15 percent by 2020.
Continuing urbanization and rural development in China will provide more destinations for ASEAN exports. Quan thinks that although there are unstable factors in foreign trade, the overall upward trend of the Chinese economy remains unchanged. He believes the steady development of the Chinese economy will benefit the whole Asia.
Reuters said the statistics serve as clear evidence of the rebound. In terms of the leading economic indicators, NBS figures and HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index have both risen to the highest growth rate for eight months. Meanwhile, in terms of "rigid indices" measuring economic activity, in November 2012, China's power generation had jumped by 7.9 percent year on year, and in November, the growth rate of steel production was 16.5 percent year on year. Moreover, crude oil processing is also growing stably.
According to Sydney Morning Herald, although November exports were a bit lower than expected, the Chinese economy is still at a sweet period. Japan's Nomura Securities believes that the Chinese economy is to see a strong rebound in the fourth quarter, driven up by domestic demand.
|