—Foreign experts and officials show optimism
When interviewed by People's Daily, foreign experts and officials all have good expectation on China's economic development prospect. They believe that the country's slowing economic growth is due to structural reasons that should be welcomed, symbolizing the improvement of the overall growth mode.
This mode will help narrow the gap between China and developed economies in terms of science and technology, so that it will be able to move more of its resources to the service sector. Slowing down growth rate still under control
An expert from Kasikorn Research Center told People's Daily that the second quarter of 2013 saw China's economy grow by 7.5 percent year on year, with a rise of 7.6 percent during the first half of this year, which is close to the Chinese Government's annual target of 7.5 percent. In the second half, the government will probably put forward new measures to ensure achievement of the annual target to promote continuous growth.
Actually, the newly issued macro statistics on import and export for July have already relieved people of the worry that China's economic growth rate is slowing. Qu Hongbin, Chief Economist for Asia Pacific at HSBC, told People's Daily, the Chinese Government has put forward several tax relief measures on urban and information technology infrastructure construction. It will take some time for this to become effective and is expected to rebound economic growth at the end of the third quarter.
Andrey Ostrovsky, Deputy Director of Far East Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences and also a senior research fellow, said the aftermath of the European debt crisis is spreading to the rest of the world, with no exception in China. In the face of turmoil in the external market, the government is trying to change its old export-oriented economic mode and explore the domestic market.
Ostrovsky points out that although the 7.6 percent growth rate for the first half of the year is a bit slower than before, it is still under control. Moreover, compared with other world economies, 7 percent is a growth rate beyond many countries' capacity. China's advantage lies in its broad internal market. Its residents still have a huge demand for consumables like houses and automobiles. This is a strong driving force behind stable and sustainable development. Structural adjustment continues to deepen
Huang Yuchuan, a senior research fellow with Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, thinks that, as China is already a more mature economy, its growth should not solely depend on expanding investment scale, but needs a higher productive force, particularly given the current shrinking labor market. The country is required to undertake some major reforms to enhance the efficiency of growth. One of the most important reforms is to make urbanization more efficient and prevent local cities from repetitive construction. China needs more rational urban management, including new financial sources and reform of the current household registration (hukou) policy.
Liang Guoyong, an economic affairs officer at the Investment and Enterprise Division of the UN Conference on Trade and Development, told People's Daily that in the practice of macro economics, more focus should be placed on structural changes, sustainable factors and livelihood demand, while a relatively low growth rate should be accepted. This will help solve various problems and risks accumulating in the past years and avoid further deterioration. Besides, it will help ensure long-term, sound and stable economic development.
Greenberg, Director of the Institute of Economic Research at the Russian Academy of Sciences, believes that the Chinese economy will undergo a transitional period. He points out that the hard task facing China is to increase resident incomes, improve living conditions in both rural and urban areas and stimulate consumption. In the process of structural adjustment, the government needs to change its role from a manager to a coordinator and supervisor. Legal means should be used to standardize the market. He stresses at the same time that structural economic growth demands the country's investment, and thus a cooperative mechanism between national and private departments is key. China is now increasing its input within the service industry and economic vitality. The policy of replacing business tax with a value-added equivalent is gradually deepening structural reforms. Short-term pain for sustainable development in return
Zhuang Juzhong, Deputy Chief Economist of Asian Development Bank, said that both internal and external factors have led to the slowing down of China's economic growth rate. On one hand, major developed economies are recovering slowly while the overall export of emerging economies is also affected. On the other hand, internal factors like declining consumption and investment growth are also affecting China's growth. Therefore, the newest report from the Asian Development Bank has lowered its expectation on the country's economic development rate. It states that a 7.5 percent economic growth for China in 2013 is out of the question, because the country is now undertaking structural economic adjustment, paying more attention to the quality of growth, while making sure employment is not negatively impacted. The Chinese Government has recently put forward a series of micro adjustment measures to "stabilize economic growth." For example, small companies are somewhat relieved of tax pressure, which will help promote development.
When reporting on China's rising economic growth, German media stresses it is the result of China's active economic adjustment and reform. The German version of the Wall Street Journal recently issued an article stating that China is seeking to adjust its economic structure, hoping to reduce reliance on the construction and heavy industry, while boosting economic growth through domestic consumption. However, it might take years for China to implement a consumption-driven domestic economy. An article on Voice of Germany states that the Chinese Government is not pushing forward stimulus measures, but is to enhance structural reforms. It is trying to reach long-term and sustainable development by enduring short-term pain.
An article in the latest Economist states that China's Government is experienced in the adjustment of economic structure. Today, the service sector has almost contributed the same economic growth rate as industry. The Chinese economy will manage the transition well, while maintaining expansion.
China is Thailand's largest export destination. Whether Thai exports can maintain positive growth in 2013 depends on China's economic development in the second half of the year. The Thai economic circle is optimistic about the development. Large-scale economic structural adjustment in China will affect domestic production and consumption. Besides, China stresses the importance of domestic demand to boost growth. Thus, the importance of domestic consumption is becoming increasingly striking and it might become the major driving force to boost China's economy in future. According to a prediction by Kasikorn Research Center, in the second half of 2013, China's economy will continue to improve and its overall annual target will be achieved. Thailand's export to China in 2013 is also expected to maintain its momentum. |