Hillary Clinton well ahead in latest poll
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E-mail Shanghai Daily, October 28, 2016
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Hillary Clinton. |
Hillary Clinton appears on the cusp of a commanding victory over Donald Trump, fueled by solid Democratic turnout in early voting, massive operational advantages and increasing enthusiasm among her supporters.
A new Associated Press-GfK poll finds that Clinton has grabbed significant advantages over her Republican rival ahead of Election Day on November 8. Among them: consolidating the support of her party and even winning some Republicans.
"I'm going to pick Hillary at the top and pick Republican straight down the line," said poll respondent William Goldstein, a 71-year-old from Long Island, New York, who voted for Mitt Romney in 2012. "I can't vote for Trump."
Overall, the poll shows Clinton leading Trump nationally by a staggering 14 percentage points among likely voters, 51-37.
The poll finds that Clinton has secured the support of 90 percent of likely Democratic voters, and also has the backing of 15 percent of more moderate Republicans. Just 79 percent of all Republicans surveyed say they are voting for their party's nominee.
With voting already underway in 37 states, Trump's opportunities to overtake Clinton are quickly evaporating. The AP-GfK poll found that 74 percent of likely voters believe Clinton will win, up from 63 percent in September.
"Donald Trump has spent his entire campaign running against the groups he needs to expand his coalition," said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster who advised Florida Senator Marco Rubio's failed presidential campaign. Ayres called Trump's campaign "strategically mindless."
Even if Clinton's support plummets in the contest's closing days, or she's unable to motivate a strong turnout, it's not clear that Trump could collect enough states to win the 270 electoral votes he needs to claim the White House.
Clinton's team has overwhelmed Trump's campaign in its effort to turn out voters.
A review of campaign finance filings finds that her campaign, the Democratic National Committee and Democratic parties in 12 states have more than three times as many paid employees as Trump's campaign and the main organizations supporting him. Clinton and Democrats had about 4,900 people on payroll in September, while Trump and Republicans had about 1,500.
Both sides benefit from legions of volunteers knocking on doors and making phone calls, as well as outside forces such as unions and super PACs pitching in on voter turnout operations. But key Republican groups are sitting out the race because of their distaste for Trump, further extending Clinton's likely advantage at getting out the vote.
The strength of the Democratic turnout effort appears to be paying dividends in states where voting is underway. Nationwide, more than 12 million voters have already cast ballots, a pace far quicker than 2012.
In North Carolina, a must-win for Trump, Democrats lead Republicans in early ballots, 47 to 29 percent. The Democrats hold an advantage even though turnout among blacks, a crucial bloc for Clinton, is down compared to this point in 2012.
In Florida, a perennial battleground, Democrats have drawn even with Republicans in votes cast, reaching that milestone faster than in 2012. Traditionally, Republicans do well initially with mail-in ballots. But Democrats were able to keep it close.
Clinton also appears to hold an edge in Nevada and Colorado based on early returns.
Trump looks strong in Ohio, Iowa and Georgia. But wins there would still leave him well short of the required votes.
Trump's unpopularity has opened surprising opportunities for Clinton. Her campaign is actively competing for Arizona, a state that has voted for the Democrat in only one presidential race since 1952, and she is also spending money in Georgia, a usually reliable Republican state.
The real surprise is Utah, where the Mormon population has turned its back on Trump.
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