This photo taken on Nov. 15, 2023 shows the European Commission building in Brussels, Belgium. [Photo/Xinhua]

The upcoming European Parliament (EP) elections, scheduled for June 6-9, are set to be a pivotal moment for the European Union (EU) since they will shape the bloc's future policies amid escalating geopolitical tensions and internal economic struggles.

In the first post-Brexit EP elections, voters from the 27 member states will elect 720 members to the 10th EP, the only directly elected body of the EU.

As a key legislative body, the EP has significant responsibilities. These include the power to approve or reject the appointment of the European Commission (EC) president and the commissioners, approve the budget plan, and vote on international agreements and enlargements of the bloc.

Rise of far-right

The parliament has been led by a strong majority of centrist parties within the ruling "super grand coalition" comprising the European People's Party (EPP), the Socialists and Democrats (S&D), and Renew Europe (RE).

However, polling projections from multiple sources, including Europe Elects, indicate a rise in populist right sentiment across Europe. The European Conservatives and Reformists and the right-wing Identity and Democracy group are projected to make notable gains.

This shift to the right mirrors broader trends seen in recent national elections across Europe. Countries like Italy, Finland, and Sweden have seen major victories for far-right parties.

Nearly half the seats in the next EP will be held by members of parliaments outside the "super grand coalition," according to a projection by the international think-tank European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).

An all-right coalition of Christian democrats, conservatives, and radical-right members could emerge with a majority for the parliament for the first time, said the ECFR.

Nevertheless, traditional pro-European coalitions are expected to maintain a majority in the parliament. The center-right EPP is forecast to remain the largest group, although it is set to lose some seats. The S&D and RE groups are also anticipated to retain significant influence, potentially forming a coalition to counterbalance the rising right.

However, the European Policy Center (EPC) noted that issues linked to the environment, EU institutions, social affairs, agriculture, and external relations could be influenced by a right-wing policy approach.

Challenges incite high voting interest

The EP Spring 2024 Eurobarometer indicates strong public interest in the upcoming elections, with 60 percent of respondents expressing "significant interest," up from 49 percent in the 2019 elections.

Key concerns include the ongoing Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine conflicts, with 81 percent of respondents saying these issues make the elections more crucial. Additionally, poverty, health, employment, and defense are also high on voters' agenda, according to the survey.

Commenting on the survey results, outgoing EP President Roberta Metsola said "Europeans are aware that the stakes are high at the ballot box, and that voting is even more important in the current geopolitical context."

Mainstream politicians appear overwhelmed as "most of yesteryear's challenges remain unresolved and new powerful forces seem to be constantly gathering steam," said analysts in a report published by the EPC.

The report highlighted growing public disenchantment with the political establishment, resulting in traditional parties losing ground to radical right political forces.

Leadership uncertainty

One of the new parliament's priorities is to vote on the next EC president. Current President Ursula von der Leyen is seeking re-election but faces potential challenges.

Her reappointment depends on sufficient support from key EU leaders and a majority in the EP. However, the rise of the far-right could complicate the process.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz warned in May that the next EC president should not seek support from far-right parties hoping to make big gains in the June vote.

Within the EPP, there is also internal debate about von der Leyen's re-election. On Thursday, Francois-Xavier Bellamy of the Les Republicans party, which belongs to the EPP, said on social media X: "If the president of the European Commission is not re-elected, it will be thanks to the fight we've led which put her in the minority in her own party. It's inside our political group that the decision will be made."

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