Greece's withdrawal from eurozone to cause global economic crisis: think tank

Guo Xinyu
0 Comment(s)Print E-mail Xinhua, October 18, 2012
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BERLIN, Oct. 17 (Xinhua) -- Greece's exit from the eurozone could wreak havoc on European economy and may result in a worldwide economic crisis, a prominent German think tank said in a study published on Wednesday.

The economic forecast study commissioned by Bertelsmann Stiftung, the largest private operating non-profit foundation in Germany, concluded that the impact of a "Grexit" would send shock waves far and wide, turning it into an "economic, political and social conflagration all over Europe and beyond."

The study shows that Greece's exit would cause losses of growth amounting to 164 billion euros (215 billion U.S. dollars) for the country by the year 2020, while the 42 top national economies in the world would have to absorb total losses amounting to 674 billion euros in total.

In addition, a "Grexit" might endanger the eurozone membership of other crisis-ridden southern European countries, the study said, adding that the economic impact of three more far-reaching exit scenarios would be more staggering.

"In the current situation, we have to make sure that the crisis in Europe does not turn into a wildfire," warned Aart De Geus, Chairman and CEO of the Bertelsmann Foundation's Executive Board.

"The market uncertainties resulting from a Greek or Portuguese exit would dramatically increase the risk premium to be paid by the already highly debt-burdened economies of Spain and Italy which could directly spur a further erosion of the eurozone," the study said.

The domestic burden alone resulting for these countries from a eurozone withdrawal would already reach the limits of what the EU is capable to bear as a community of solidarity, De Geus said.

Knowing the devastating implications of Greece's exit for the global economy, the authors of the study call for international efforts to prevent the development.

Greece has been dependent on international bailout aid on condition of drastic austerity measures, including pay cuts and higher retirement ages. It needs to gain access to 31.5 billion euros or 40.6 billion dollars, in loans from a second EU-International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout program that has been held up for several months.

Inspectors from IMF, European Commission and European Central Bank have concluded their mission in Greece of assessing the country's progress in fulfilling austerity promises before receiving the aid.

The troika's approval is vital to unlock the next installment of aid, which is urgently needed to avoid bankruptcy.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Monday she wanted Greece to remain in the eurozone, though adding that Athens has to continue its austerity and reform measures.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble also said at the weekend that Greece is not going bankrupt and it is not going to be forced out of the eurozone.(1 euro = 1.31 U.S. dollars) Enditem

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