News Analysis: What to expect from Ukraine's policy under a new president?

0 Comment(s)Print E-mail Xinhua, May 27, 2019
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KIEV, May 27 (Xinhua) -- Ukrainian actor-turned-politician Volodymyr Zelensky, who was elected president of Ukraine on April 21, took office last week.

Zelensky came to power amid huge expectations for positive transformations in the country during his term, which is reflected by the record-high support of over 73 percent of the vote for him in the second round of the elections.

There is no doubt that Zelensky's presidency will have important implications for Ukraine's domestic and foreign policy as the political landscape of the country will definitely change.

The first decision of the new president was to dissolve the parliament and set early elections for July. It came as no surprise as representatives of Zelensky's election team have previously announced that the parliament could be disbanded.

Yet, it is difficult to predict the next steps of the new president due to the lack of details regarding his political course.

"His administration has not yet been formed, it will be necessary to solve many organizational issues, and only then some decisions and intentions would be announced," Volodymyr Volya, an analyst at the Ukrainian Institute for Analysis and Management of Policy, told Xinhua.

Volya said Zelensky's early statements gave little reason to expect any major change in the country's domestic policy, at least in the near term.

"The only intentions that have been manifested are the abolishment of the parliamentary immunity, the amendment of the electoral law and the revival of the punishment for illegal enrichment. All other questions still look vague," Volya said.

Zelensky came to power at a time of a fragile economic recovery in Ukraine and gradual improvements in people's well-being, spurred by the continued economic reforms.

However, the armed conflict in the east of the country, which entered its sixth year in April, remains a major threat to national stability and a key test for Zelensky.

In his inaugural speech, the new Ukrainian president said that putting an end to the hostilities would be his priority task in office, but now it is unclear what means Zelensky would use to resolve the conflict.

Oleksandr Musienko, head of the Center for Military and Law Research, told Xinhua he believes Zelensky will continue the course on the resolution of the confrontation through international diplomatic efforts.

"In the matters of peaceful settlement in the Donbas, we do not expect any drastic steps and changes of the Minsk format or the Normandy format," Musienko said.

At the same time, he noted that Ukraine may appeal to the United States and Britain, asking them to join the Normandy format, which currently comprises Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France.

Meanwhile, Ihor Markevych, an expert at Amigo Partners consulting company, said he expects Zelensky to start direct negotiations with Russia on the crisis in eastern Ukraine.

But he believes that despite a possible thaw in relations between Kiev and Moscow under Zelensky's presidency, Ukraine's course toward joining the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is unlikely to change.

"The course on the rapprochement with NATO and the EU has already been enshrined in the constitution of Ukraine, and therefore any changes are impossible without amending the constitution. In addition, the society largely supports the movement toward the EU and NATO," Markevych said.

Liliya Brudnytska, an analyst at the political studies center Vybir, told Xinhua that there are prerequisites that Ukraine can return to a balanced foreign policy under Zelensky's presidency.

"European integration could cease to be the only possible direction that limited the space for Ukraine's maneuvering in the foreign policy arena. Zelensky's statement that 'Europe is in our heads' can mean the multi-vector policy," Brudnytska said.

While commenting on Ukraine's future relations with NATO, she noted that the new president may hold a referendum on whether to join the alliance.

"The question of NATO-Ukraine ties will be probably put on a referendum, but this is a distant or a medium-term perspective," Brudnytska said. Enditem

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