Aussie researchers develop mathematical model to predict COVID-19 vaccine efficacy
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E-mail Xinhua, March 15, 2022
SYDNEY, March 15 (Xinhua) -- Researchers at the University of Queensland (UQ) have developed a way to predict the efficacy of future vaccines using a new mathematical model.
Published in the Nature Computational Science journal and released on Tuesday, the research was the result of an international collaboration between the Queensland Brain Institute and the Indian Institute of Science.
The model was created from the analysis of over 80 different antibodies generated by vaccines against the surface spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, Pranesh Padmanabhan from the Queensland Brain Institute told Xinhua.
"We developed a model to describe the diversity of vaccine-induced antibody responses within and across individuals," he said.
This model was then applied to eight approved COVID-19 vaccines and was able to accurately predict the level of protection they would grant when tested in clinical trials.
This would mean the efficacy of vaccines could be assessed in the early stages of vaccine development, giving vaccine developers a much earlier insight into how a vaccine is performing.
The model would also help assess the effectiveness of vaccines at the population level, as well as predict what proportion of society would be vulnerable to severe disease from arising variants.
The initial model used by the researchers was based on the original strain of COVID-19. In future research, they hope to be able to apply the model to new variants and potential new vaccines.
"Overcoming this challenge (of variable effectiveness of vaccines across individuals) would allow predicting the fraction of the vaccinated individuals who would generate strong enough responses to be protected from serious infection," said Narendra Dixit from the Indian Institute of Science.
"By deducing links between the activity of antibodies, its variability, antibody generation by vaccination, and the resulting protection conferred upon populations, our study offers exciting insights into the workings of COVID-19 vaccines," Dixit said. Enditem
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