SYDNEY, March 3 (Xinhua) -- The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) on Thursday released a long-range forecast for autumn, indicating that much of the country is likely to see below-median rainfall and above-normal temperatures from March to May.

The weather authority said in a statement that fire agencies have identified that most of Australia has a normal bushfire potential during autumn, with some areas, such as parts of the states of New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia (WA), having an above-normal bushfire risk.

The risk of grassfires would also continue across southern Australia after abundant vegetation growth during the second-wettest spring on record in 2022 dried over the summer, said the BOM.

According to a statement by the Australian and New Zealand National Council for Fire and Emergency Services (AFAC), the conditions could result in drier-than-average soil moisture in late autumn for the Murray Darling Basin in the southeast of Australia, the state of Tasmania and the west of WA, suggesting vegetation growth from high moisture last year may be drying out and leading to high bushfire fuel loads in some places.

"We are seeing a shift in the climate drivers influencing Australia, which means our hazard risks are shifting too. While consecutive La Nina events have now passed, we are left with increased vegetation growth in many locations due to sustained rainfall," said Simon Heemstra, director of national projects and innovation at AFAC.

The BOM said La Nina is likely near its end in the Pacific Ocean, but one of its climate models has detected the thresholds of another climate pattern, El Nino, in May, marked by reduced rainfall, warmer temperatures, and a shift in temperature extremes.

The fire and emergency council warned that fire potential can vary significantly between bordering states and territories, even on a small scale. This is due to different land use types, vegetation types, and forecasts for temperature and rainfall in each state or territory.

"As we move out of the summer season, we urge communities to be mindful of the residual fire risk in their area," said Heemstra, noting that this is particularly relevant to grassfires, which can move quickly and can be deadly. Enditem

Related

Go to Forum >>0 Comment(s)