by Xinhua writer Tian Ye

CAIRO, Dec. 22 (Xinhua) -- Had it not been for the Israel-Hamas conflict, the year 2023 could have been characterized by a rising tide of peaceful reconciliation among regional powers in the Middle East.

The sudden outbreak of the Israel-Hamas conflict in October has shattered hopes for a peaceful end to 2023 in the Middle East, which witnessed the historical normalization of ties between two arch-rivals, Iran and Saudi Arabia, under the mediation of China.

The Saudi-Iran rapprochement, as well as renewed Arab unity, gave a stronger push to a peace momentum, which already started years ago, to end the conflicts in this traditionally volatile region.

CONFLICT SETS BACK REGIONAL DE-ESCALATION

Hamas' surprise attack on southern Israel on Oct. 7, which triggered the deadly conflict that raged on till the year's end, occurred at a time when a U.S.-brokered deal to normalize ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia was reportedly approaching.

There had been multiple interconnected normalization tracks in place before the Gaza conflict. Rapprochement also took place between Gulf states and Israel, Türkiye and Iran, respectively, and Türkiye continued to improve newly restored ties with Israel, as part of the process of de-escalation that appeared to feed into a wider regional trend, said Batu Coskun, a research fellow at Libya's Sadeq Institute.

"The trend of de-escalation that had been in place for the last 24 months now faces a major setback in the region," he said, referring to the Hamas-Israel conflict, which is the deadliest in decades as it has so far killed more than 20,000 Palestinians and about 1,300 people in Israel.

"As is often the case in the Middle East, such surges of violence often undo major diplomatic work and erode years of careful reconciliation," he said.

After the outbreak of the Gaza conflict, Saudi Arabia decided to halt the normalization process with Israel in protest. Egypt and Jordan, which border Israel on opposite sides and have signed peace treaties with Israel, were angered by Israel's attacks on Gaza and the massive displacement of Palestinians. Other Arab nations that normalized ties with Israel not long ago, such as Morocco, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates, have all denounced Israel's assaults in the Gaza Strip.

"For years, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu operated under illusions that have now been shattered," Mark Leonard, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, wrote in an article published by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute on Nov. 7.

"The biggest was the expectation that Israel could normalize ties with the Arab world without addressing the Palestinian question, which he apparently believed could simply be wished away," wrote Mark Leonard. "Now, that question has become impossible to ignore."

RAPPROCHEMENT STILL UNDERWAY

The China-brokered Saudi-Iran agreement to restore ties in March was a landmark event in the geopolitics of the Middle East, which has benefited not only the two states but also regional countries, such as Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon, said Hassan Beheshtipour, an Iranian international affairs analyst.

Iraq regards the Saudi-Iran deal as consistent with its own security and stability. Following the Saudi-Iran deal, Syria was re-admitted into the Arab League in May, in a show of renewed Arab unity. Lebanon also welcomed the rehabilitation of Saudi-Iran ties, Beheshtipour said.

As a result of the Saudi-Iran rapprochement, rounds of peace negotiations were held between the Yemeni government backed by Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthi rebels. In April, hundreds of prisoners were released in a swap deal between the warring parties in Yemen as momentum began to build to end the nine-year conflict.

Syria's return to the Arab League after 11 years was sealed by the attendance of President Bashar al-Assad at a summit held in Saudi Arabia in May.

Before the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas conflict, both Israeli and Saudi leaders hinted that a U.S.-brokered deal was near for normalizing their ties. The bloody conflict has set back Israel's progress to mend ties with Arab states, which started with the signing of the Abraham Accords with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco in 2020.

Hadeer Said, a professor of international relations at the Cairo-based Institute of Arab Research and Studies, attributed the regional rapprochement to the U.S. policy of retreat from the Middle East, as many Arab countries have lost their trust in Washington's security guarantees.

The rising momentum of rapprochement in the region has set back the U.S. plan for arming the Arab version of NATO to contain Iran, deemed by both Israel and the U.S. as the leading threat to Israel's existence, Said said.

"The ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict confused and complicated the regional situation. This perplexity has been exploited by some powers like the U.S. for enlarging its regional influence and its control on the regional countries after years of retreated political role in the Middle East," he said.

However, analysts believe that, although the momentum of regional reconciliation in the Middle East has been temporarily halted by the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, it will continue once the conflict is resolved.

It's largely because major countries in the region have determined to take their fates into their own hands, rather than only relying on Washington, and the factors leading to the Abraham Accords still exist despite the Israel-Hamas conflict.

In the long run, the common desire to seek economic development and transformation, as well as the need to cope with the so-called Iran threat, will help restart the normalization process between Israel and major Arab states, though the Palestine issue will gain more consideration in future talks.

SECURITY CHALLENGES REMAIN

Analysts caution that the restoration of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran does not imply that the profound and fundamental differences between the Shiites in Tehran and the Sunnis in Riyadh have been forgotten.

The two countries will remain competitors with different visions for the region, analysts said, though the restoration of Saudi-Iran ties is a positive development that has reduced the risk of direct military confrontations and facilitated their economic development.

Meanwhile, Türkiye's cross-border attacks continued in Syria and Iraq. In an interview with Sky News Arabia in August, Syrian President Bashar Assad called for the withdrawal of Turkish forces from Syria and slammed Türkiye, which is a main backer of armed opposition fighters, for the violence in his war-torn country.

In Sudan, deadly clashes between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces since April 15 still showed no sign of abating. More than 12,000 people have been killed so far in the clashes, while 6.9 million others have been displaced inside and outside Sudan, according to the UN.

Parts of war-ravaged Sudan are at a high risk of slipping into catastrophic famine by next year, the United Nations World Food Program has warned.

Furthermore, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza continues to deepen day by day with the rising number of civilians killed by Israel's airstrikes and ground offensive and a severe shortage of food, water and medicine due to the Israeli siege.

The longer the Israel-Hamas conflict lingers, the bigger the risk of the conflict's spreading in the whole region, where the geopolitical situation would worsen with a rising Palestinian death toll. Enditem

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