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E-mail Xinhua, April 8, 2024
CAIRO/GAZA, April 8 (Xinhua) -- With the Gaza conflict entering the seventh month, Israel has made substantial shifts to its military deployment, signaling intentions to wage new military operations.
On Sunday, the Israeli military withdrew nearly all ground troops from the southern Gaza Strip. Later in the day, the Israeli military announced in a statement that it had completed "another phase" of readiness for war in the north.
Analysts suggested that due to the deep-rooted divisions between Israel and regional groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, coupled with the nonfeasance of countries like the United States to play their due role in facilitating a ceasefire, the conflicts in the Middle East not only face a bleak outlook for a short-term resolution, but also exhibit signs of further escalation.
SIGNS OF ESCALATION
Since the outbreak of the conflict on Oct. 7, 2023, when Hamas militants launched "Operation Al-Aqsa Flood" against Israel, the security situation in the Middle East has been on a constant downward spiral.
Over the past six months, deadly confrontations triggered by the Gaza conflict have erupted in multiple countries across the Middle East.
The day after the Hamas attack on Israel, the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah started firing rockets at Israel, heightening tensions along the Lebanon-Israel border.
In November, Yemen's Houthi rebels began targeting Israel-linked ships passing through the Red Sea with missiles and drones. Numerous commercial vessels were attacked by the Houthis.
Shortly after that, the United States and Britain intervened in the conflict under the pretext of safeguarding navigation in the Red Sea, conducting airstrikes and naval bombardments against Houthi targets in Yemen.
In addition, armed groups from countries like Iraq and Syria have also engaged in confrontations with Israel.
Last week, Israel killed seven Iranians in a missile strike on the consular section of the Iranian embassy in the Syrian capital Damascus, igniting a fresh round of escalation.
Following the attack, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei vowed to take countermeasures and inflict "a regret-inducing punishment" on Israel for its "criminal" attack.
Speaking about the latest deployment adjustments of the Israeli army, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Sunday that the Israeli forces are making preparations for "follow-up missions."
Experts warned that Israel's military actions may further exacerbate the already heightened tensions in the region.
Israel's latest move "underscores its intent to broaden the conflict ... it could lead to further escalation, risking a comprehensive confrontation," said Osama Danura, a Syrian political analyst.
SPILLOVER
The spillover of the Israel-Palestine conflict is reverberating throughout the region, resulting in significant humanitarian crises and substantial economic losses.
The Gaza Strip is the most severely impacted area. According to the Hamas-run health ministry, the Palestinian death toll from ongoing Israeli attacks in the Gaza Strip has exceeded 33,000, with the majority being women and children.
Israel's blockade of Gaza has hindered the delivery of life-saving aid to the region, pushing the region further toward mass starvation.
UN Food and Agriculture Organization said in a recent report that as of Feb. 7, the entire 2.2 million population in Gaza is facing acute food insecurity, over 50 percent of which are at an emergency level, and at least 1 in 4 faces catastrophic conditions.
In the southern Gaza city of Rafah, over 1.5 million Palestinians are anxiously awaiting imminent assault from the Israeli army.
On Sunday, Israeli government spokesperson Avi Hyman told media that Israel would continue with its military operation in Rafah, despite a warning by UN officials that a ground offensive on Rafah would have "catastrophic consequences."
Israel's ongoing military operations are also triggering humanitarian crises in neighboring countries.
In Lebanon, Israeli attacks have led to over 400 deaths and more than 1,000 injuries. Around 83,000 people were displaced from border areas, with half of them being women and children.
The Gaza conflict has also cast a long shadow over both the regional and global economy.
The ongoing clashes have already hit the Middle East and North Africa region's economy, said Kristalina Georgieva, the International Monetary Fund's managing director.
"I fear most a longevity of the conflict because, if it goes on and on, the risk of spillover goes up," she said.
The World Bank has also warned about the economic impact of the conflict.
"What's going on Gaza ... and the Red Sea" are among the top challenges to the global economic outlook, World Bank President Ajay Banga said in February.
BUMPY ROAD TO PEACE
The international community has been exerting diverse efforts to help restore peace in the region.
After being repeatedly vetoed by the United States, a resolution demanding an immediate ceasefire in the coastal enclave was ultimately adopted by the UN Security Council in late March.
On Sunday, with mediation from countries including Egypt and Qatar, delegates from Hamas and Israel convened in Cairo for discussions on reaching a ceasefire and a hostage-for-prisoner swap deal.
Progress has been made in talks in Cairo on a Gaza conflict truce and there is agreement on the basic points between all parties involved, Al-Qahera News, an Egyptian state-owned TV channel, reported on Monday.
However, despite ongoing diplomatic endeavors, analysts suggested that the path to peace in the region remains fraught with challenges.
"There is little prospect of a negotiated settlement to end the conflict," said Steven Wright, an associate professor of international relations at Qatar's Hamad Bin Khalifa University.
One of the most notable challenges is the reluctance of the United States to leverage its influence over Israel and call on it to halt its military operations, said Wright.
Echoing Wright, Palestinian analyst Ayman Yousef said the U.S. government has developed a habit of merely paying lip service when calling for a ceasefire, without taking substantive action.
"Despite occasional statements ... America continues to facilitate Israeli aggression by providing military aid and political cover," said Syrian political analyst Danura.
Israel's insistence on military actions presents another challenge to achieving peace. "Israel shows no signs of de-escalation, persisting in acts of violence such as ongoing attacks in the Gaza Strip and escalating tensions in other areas like southern Lebanon," Danura said.
Despite Israel's current involvement in negotiations, it has made clear its intention to continue military operations, making ultimate compromise unlikely during talks, according to Hani Al-Gamal, a political analyst at the Cairo-based Arab Centre for Research and Studies.
"We will not leave any Hamas brigades active, in any part of the Gaza Strip," Herzi Halevi, chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, told a press conference on Sunday. "We are far from stopping." Enditem
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