by Rania Aboelkheir

The situation currently unfolding in the Middle East, following the events of Oct. 7, 2023, and the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip, is neither unprecedented nor likely to be the last.

This has reset the Palestinian cause to square one and plunged the entire region into a complex and intertwined crisis.

The crisis has escalated as the conflict has spilled over into neighboring countries, spreading the strife to new arenas and circles. This has further inflamed the region, intensified the conflict, and heightened the scale of international and regional alignments.

This escalation became particularly severe after the assassination of Lebanese Hezbollah leader Fouad Shokor and Palestinian Hamas Politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh.

These events have escalated the situation, threatening regional security and drawing in international interventions from actors already entangled in the region's complexities.

The Middle East is now divided into three main alignments, each interwoven and overlapping with the others.

From this perspective, a map of the region's alignments can be drawn around three primary orientations, each encompassing its internal actors, direct regional players, and international supporters. These alignments are as follows:

The first orientation, known as the axis of resistance or rejection, includes Palestinian and Lebanese organizations that refuse to negotiate with Israel and advocate for the use of force in addressing the region's issues.

At the forefront of these actors are Hamas and Islamic Jihad, along with other Palestinian factions, Lebanese Hezbollah, certain Iraqi and Syrian groups, and aligned entities within some Arab states, including the Houthi movement in Yemen.

This orientation is supported by certain regional actors as well as international players. However, the level of support from international and regional actors varies. International backing is primarily limited to political and diplomatic support in international and regional forums, without extending to military or financial aid, except in the form of humanitarian assistance.

The second orientation involves groups that escalate violence and use force against proponents of the first stance, broadening the conflict and plunging the region into deeper crises while rejecting international legitimacy.

Israel's policy of assassinating political and security leaders, its repeated attacks on the Palestinian people, and its violations of Lebanese territory, as well as its recent breach of Iranian sovereignty by assassinating Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh, exemplify this orientation.

This stance is strongly supported by the United States, which has pledged full political, economic, and security backing for Israel. Additionally, some European countries view Israel's actions as legitimate self-defense and offer their support accordingly.

However, this orientation has not garnered regional support from Middle Eastern countries, which oppose U.S. policy and view it as biased, undermining its role as a fair mediator in the peace process.

The third orientation rejects escalation in the region, advocating for restraint from both sides, adherence to international legitimacy, and respect for the United Nations Charter, which emphasizes resolving conflicts through peaceful negotiations rather than force or aggression.

Proponents of this orientation believe that negotiation is the most effective way to resolve the region's crisis. They propose expanding areas of mutual cooperation to integrate all parties into economic, developmental, and political frameworks, aiming to dismantle the long-held belief that conflict is inevitable.

This orientation is represented in Palestine by the Palestinian Authority, which signed a peace treaty with Israel, though much of it remains unimplemented.

This stance is supported by all Arab countries, as reflected in the Arab Peace Initiative proposed in 2003.

Egypt and Qatar have played a significant role in this orientation, engaging in diplomatic efforts to stabilize the situation and prevent a wider, devastating war across the region.

Internationally, this approach is backed by China and some Asian and Latin American countries.

China's role in facilitating Palestinian reconciliation underscores China's commitment to a peaceful approach based on building shared agreements and resolving issues through negotiation.

In summary, the Middle East is poised for multiple trajectories and developments regarding its future, depending on how the current crisis unfolds, with its implications for all involved parties.

The impact is expected to extend to the evolution of the international system, which remains in flux.

Just as the Second Gulf War in the 1990s marked a turning point from a bipolar to a unipolar international system, the current events in the region are likely to influence the future world order. This transformation has been foreshadowed by earlier indicators.

The current moment is fraught with uncertainty, poised between the possibility of gentle rain or a deluge that could drastically reshape the region. While the hope for greater stability and calm remains, it is an unlikely scenario; the more probable outcome is further chaos and disintegration.

This precarious situation underscores the urgent need for intensified international efforts to promote peace and dialogue, aiming to reduce escalating tensions that threaten global peace and security.

The role played by China in the previous Saudi-Iranian reconciliation and recent Palestinian reconciliations serves as a vital model for promoting peace, dialogue, and negotiation as the basis for building a shared future for humanity.

Editor's note: Rania Aboelkheir is the secretary-general of the Egyptian think tank Global Forum for Future Studies.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author's and do not necessarily reflect the positions of Xinhua News Agency.

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