JUBA, March 10 (Xinhua) -- Experts have warned that escalating conflict in South Sudan threatens to unravel the fragile peace agreement, urging warring parties to cease hostilities immediately to rebuild trust.

Tensions flared up in Upper Nile State following violent clashes between the South Sudan People's Defense Forces (SSPDF) and opposition fighters.

The recent attack in Nasir County resulted in the deaths of a senior SSPDF general, dozens of soldiers, and a United Nations personnel during an evacuation mission involving government troops besieged by the White Army, a militia linked to the opposition Sudan People's Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO).

Abraham Kuol Nyuon, dean of the School for Social and Economic Studies at the University of Juba, warned that instability could spread without immediate de-escalation by President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar.

"As things stand, the president can act as he pleases because the peace agreement has already been violated and Machar can do the same. There is no cohesion within the government currently," Nyuon told Xinhua.

Fighting erupted in mid-February when the transitional government redeployed SSPDF troops and allied Agwelek forces led by former rebel commander Johnson Olony. Olony, who split from Machar's party in 2021, returned to Juba under the 2022 peace deal.

Nyuon warned that tensions in Upper Nile could escalate nationwide, calling for interventions from the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD). "The best way forward is for IGAD to send a delegation to Juba to engage both leaders and facilitate negotiations," he said, stressing that resolving disputes at the leadership level could restore government cohesion.

The attack in Nasir has further deepened mistrust. Following the clashes, several senior military officers and ministers aligned with Machar were arrested by the National Security Services, further straining the transitional unity government.

"It will be difficult for the cabinet to function smoothly because uncertainty looms over their meetings due to the heightened tension," Nyuon said.

Ter Manyang Gatwech, executive director of the Juba-based Center for Peace and Advocacy, put the blame on Kiir's unilateral dismissal of Western Equatoria State Governor Alfred Futuyo Karaba and Health Minister Yolanda Awel Deng. Under the 2018 peace deal, such changes require consultation among signatory parties, a step Kiir did not take with the SPLM-IO.

Gatwech also pointed to delays in training and deploying the unified forces stipulated in the agreement.

"The White Army's concern was not about government redeployment but the lack of dialogue over their grievances," he said. "The forces sent to Nasir included Agwelek fighters, who are not yet integrated into the SSPDF, which raised genuine concerns."

The first batch of 52,000 unified forces graduated in August 2022 but has yet to be fully deployed, while training for the second batch is pending. The transitional government is mandated to train and deploy 83,000 unified forces.

The People's Coalition for Civil Action, a civil society group involved in peace talks in Kenya's capital of Nairobi, blamed both parties for the escalation.

"If both sides had acted in good faith, unilateral decisions would not have been made without prior notification, nor would there have been threats of armed resistance," the coalition said in a statement. Enditem

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