by Burak Akinci

ANKARA, March 30 (Xinhua) -- The Turkish government is taking significant steps to counteract a troubling demographic decline, introducing numerous incentives aimed at reversing the falling birth rate.

Türkiye has declared 2025 the "Year of the Family," an initiative designed to promote childbirth, while its Ministry of Family and Social Services has unveiled a comprehensive program intended to support working mothers, which includes establishing public nurseries and kindergartens to facilitate childcare.

The country's birth rate has steadily declined for years, reaching a low of 958,000 births in 2023. The total fertility rate -- the average number of children a woman has over a lifetime -- has plummeted to 1.51, well below the replacement level of 2.10, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat). The 2024 data has not yet been released.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has characterized these trends as a "disaster" and an "existential threat" to the nation. He is a vocal advocate for larger families, repeatedly urging Turkish couples to have "at least three children" to help restore demographic balance.

As part of this year's campaign, he has introduced a series of initiatives focused on broader family-related issues, including financial aid, baby bonuses, childcare subsidies, maternity leave allowances, counseling services, and housing support for young couples.

"The increase in funding for family support policies is aimed at addressing declining birth rate and, over time, preventing a demographic crisis," said Atilla Yesilada, an Istanbul-based economist.

Despite the government's proactive efforts, the intertwined challenges of economic pressures and an aging population underline the complexity of reversing the demographic trends.

Financial stress, including high inflation and rising living costs, has dampened many young people's willingness to marry and start families. A 2024 report from the Ankara-based think tank TEPAV indicated that economic uncertainties and unemployment are significant factors contributing to the decline in the fertility rate. Many families are compelled to postpone or entirely abandon their plans to have children.

"We married last year, but we don't plan to have children in the foreseeable future," said Leyla Ozer, a 25-year-old private sector employee from Ankara. She described the government's financial incentives for childbearing and loans for newlyweds as "good in essence but insufficient" in light of soaring living costs. "Housing and rent prices are extremely high, and educational expenses are also daunting. For now, we are better off without children," she noted.

The increasing number of retirees, driven by a rising aging population, is compounding these challenges by further straining the social security system. The elderly population, including those aged 65 and above, increased by 20.7 percent in the last five years and exceeded 9.1 million in 2024, according to a TurkStat report published on March 13. It added that the proportion of the elderly in the total population increased from 9.1 percent in 2019 to 10.6 percent in 2024.

TurkStat's population forecasts for 2050 and 2100 suggest a significant decline in the youth population ratio. In 2023, this ratio stood at 15.1 percent -- already below the global average -- but is expected to shrink further to 9.66 percent by 2050 and 9.55 percent by 2100.

Although Türkiye's young population remains a key competitive advantage for its economy, "the shrinking youth population could severely impact future growth," Yesilada warned, adding, "A reduction in the working-age population may lead to lower production capacity and impede future development prospects," which in turn led to further economic uncertainty and rising financial burden of raising children. Enditem

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