SYDNEY, April 1 (Xinhua) -- A new economic forecast projects that a 4 degrees Celsius rise in global temperatures could slash world GDP by 40 percent by 2100, a sharp increase from previous estimates of just 11 percent, the University of New South Wales (UNSW) said on Tuesday.

The findings by the UNSW Institute for Climate Risk & Response (ICRR) challenge longstanding economic models that have shaped global climate policies, reinforcing the urgency of stronger climate action.

Lead researcher Timothy Neal said previous economic models failed to account for cascading supply chain disruptions caused by extreme weather events. Traditionally, economists assessed climate damage by comparing historical weather events to economic growth, overlooking the global interconnectivity of modern economies.

"Because these damages haven't been taken into account, prior economic models have inadvertently concluded that even severe climate change wasn't a big problem for the economy," Neal said, adding disruptions in one region will ripple across global supply chains, affecting all nations, including colder ones like Canada and Russia.

In reality, "no country is immune," he said.

The revised projections bolster the case for limiting warming to 1.7 degrees Celsius, aligning with accelerated decarbonization targets such as the Paris Agreement, and well below the 2.7 degrees Celsius threshold previously deemed acceptable.

Neal said economic models must evolve alongside real-world climate impacts, from rising food prices to surging insurance costs. Enditem

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