by Thong Mengdavid

The tariff and trade policies unilaterally deployed by U.S. President Donald Trump are causing higher consumer prices, increased production costs, supply chain disruption and global retaliation.

IMPACT OF TARIFF HIKES

As a central component of the Trump administration's economic strategy, tariffs have posed several challenges to the U.S. economy. While designed to protect domestic industries and reduce trade deficits, tariffs typically have broader, often more unintended consequences.

One of the most immediate effects is the rising cost of imports, leading to higher consumer prices. By increasing input costs -- raw materials, components and finished goods -- tariffs elevate production expenses for U.S. firms, which are typically passed on to consumers.

This inflationary pressure can reduce disposable income, dampening consumer spending and weakening the overall economy.

Moreover, tariffs can disrupt established supply chains, introducing greater uncertainty and higher costs for firms reliant on importing goods and materials from abroad, potentially leading to delays in production and reduced profitability.

These disruptions can create ripple effects across industries, leading to lower output and slower economic growth.

For many U.S. companies, tariffs also lead to a loss of market access and diminished competitiveness in global markets, affecting their ability to expand and maintain profitability.

MOUNTING CONCERNS OVER "TRUMPCESSION"

The cumulative effects of tariffs could slow down economic growth further, potentially leading to a "Trumpcession."

Recent data, marked by sluggish gross domestic product (GDP) growth, rising unemployment rates and stagnation in key economic sectors, have fueled concerns about a potential U.S. economic recession.

These indicators suggest that the U.S. economy is facing significant headwinds, such as supply chain disruptions, rising inflation and slowing business investment.

The fear is that the cumulative effect of these factors may push the U.S. economy into a recession, which is often associated with a broad contraction in economic activity, leading to reduced consumer spending and business confidence. Looking ahead, the economic outlook remains uncertain.

The imbalance created by tariffs may also provoke countermeasures from other economies, further complicating trade relations and intensifying economic challenges for the United States, including delayed capital investment and heightened market volatility.

Moreover, ongoing adjustments to the U.S. economic model -- partly driven by the Trump administration's trade policies -- may prompt shifts in business strategies, supply chains and overall market dynamics.

If the global economy remains interconnected and increasingly reliant on cross-border trade, tariffs could become an obstacle to long-term growth, both domestically and internationally.

All in all, the Trump administration's tariff policies have contributed to rising costs, trade disruptions, inflationary pressures, stagnant wage growth and employment volatility, all of which could hamper the U.S. economy's growth.

As the United States grapples with these issues, the broader economic trajectory suggests the risk of a recession, potentially marked by a prolonged period of stagnation and diminished economic activity.

Editor's note: Thong Mengdavid is a lecturer at the Institute for International Studies and Public Policy of the Royal University of Phnom Penh in Cambodia.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Xinhua News Agency.

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