"The stock market is a huge gambling house," remarked famous
Chinese economist Wu Jinglian earlier this year. His statement
immediately triggered an unprecedented fierce debate. Along with
the strengthened management of and supervision by China's
regulatory authorities, the debate trailed away. Since July this
year, however, stock prices have plummeted, which have provoked
another debate.
In
the second half of this year, the media successively exposed cases
involving illegal operations on the stock market. Even though the
China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) punished the
offenders, investors' confidence was sapped. In addition, the
measures for reduction of State shares and the September 11
terrorist attacks on the United States also caused negative impact
on the stock market. As a result, the stock index plummeted from
2,245 points to below 1,600 points within several months. Investors
began to worry about the future of the stock market.
On
October 22, the stock market fell abruptly, closing at 1,514. That
evening, CSRC announced a suspension of the State share reduction
program, which led to an immediate rebound of indices on the
Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges. The suspension also led the
debate on stock markets into a new stage.
Xu
Xiaonian, a famous Chinese economist, regarded CSRC's decision an
unwise action, saying that it means the government shouldered the
entire responsibility for the fall of the stock market. He believes
that the slump in stock prices is a revolutionary adjustment of the
stock market. His statement, centering on demolishing the existing
stock market and establishing a new one, has invited severe
criticism. Wu Xiaoqiu and other economists spoke highly in the
State share reduction, saying it showed the government's practical
and realistic working style. The debate between the two sides
focused on how to evaluate and develop China's stock market, and
how to reform the stock market, step by step or at a fast pace.
Replace the Old Structure with a New One
Xu Xiaonian (economist and Director of the Research Department
of China International Capital Corp. Ltd.): The suspension of
the State share reduction measure is unwise because, in this case,
the government shouldered the whole responsibility. As a matter of
fact, the abrupt fall of the stock market was not caused by the
reduction of State share, but by illegal operations of brokers,
stock traders and listed companies. Apart from these, artificially
high stock prices, a lack of basic support and the demerits of the
stock market's structure also led to a sluggish stock market.
However, CSRC's decision merely declared that the government does
have a bottom line of stock index. This made investors doubt the
pledge of the governmentnot making the stock index the target of
regulation. They worried that the stock market would resume the
vicious circle of "stock index slumpgovernment supportstock index
rebound", and thus bubbles form and then burst.
The government's interference in the stock market broke investors'
normal expectations and added risks to the market. Despite this,
the recessive insurance of regulatory authorities also broke the
balance between risks and benefits, resulting in a twisted signal
of price and unreasonable resources allocation.
Some scholars say that the continuing sluggish stock market may
greatly affect the financial market. To gain government support,
some people exaggerated the possibility of a break in the capital
chain and a financial crisis to be triggered by securities dealers'
run on the stock market. But if the capital belongs to banks and
law-violating enterprises, or if it is trust money that guarantees
repayment, the early break of such a capital chain is good.
Problems of the securities sector may cause a 3-percentage point
increase in the rate of bad accounts. If they remain unsolved,
there will be more bad accounts. In addition, the fact that just a
30 percent decrease of stock index can trigger the break of the
capital chain revealed serious problems in risk management of our
stock institutions. Given this, it is unreasonable to let the
government take responsibility for a capital chain break.
According to economics and financial knowledge, runs on the stock
market are less likely to happen when compared with runs on banks.
Even if it happens, its effect is less than that of banks because
of their different structures. The reason is that when the bank
grants a loan, it is enlarging its credit. But investors are not
involved in creating their credit; they have nothing to do with the
issue of credit.
Most China's bank assets belong to State banks. Runs on banks may
trigger a crisis of the State credit. But runs on the stock market
do not affect the State, let alone the State credit. Hence, the
solution to difficulties in operation encountered by securities
dealers should not be the raising of stock prices.
A Careless Statement
Xiao Zhuoji (economist): The suggestion of replacing the
existing stock market structure with a new one can be traced back
several years. It stemmed from the argument that the demerit of
China's stock market has surpassed its merit, and that China's
stock market is a large gambling house. I do not agree with these
views. China's stock market has played a positive role in the
country's economic development and scored a notable achievement.
For years, China's stock market has developed in full swing, and
contributed to raising funds, transforming economic structure,
optimizing resource allocation, enhancing economic returns,
increasing tax revenue and integrating Chinese economy with that of
the world. It is worth noting that funds raised from domestic and
overseas capital markets have reached 1 trillion yuan, and revenue
from the stamp tax on buying and selling stocks has possibly risen
to 140 billion yuan from 120 billion yuan at the end of last year.
Both have greatly supported the country's economic
construction.
The destruction of the present stock market means the 1 trillion
yuan raised by 1,200 firms from the stock market cannot be returned
to investors, and will cause a loss of about 3 trillion yuan to
some 65 million investors, because some of the capital has been
used for the construction of expressways, airports and enterprises.
If these projects are suspended, who will take the
responsibility?
In
addition, who can guarantee that the new structure is better than
the old? Therefore, we should take a prudent attitude to such an
important issue.
The problem of China's stock market does not lie in a shortage of
capital, but the lack of confidence. Economist Dong Fureng proposed
that we should protect China's capital market as if we are taking
care of a child. A child will stumble when learning to walk; it is
an inevitable course of growing up. Similarly, it takes time for
China's stock market to mature. It is not a responsible attitude to
destroy the present stock market and establish a new one.
Dong Fureng (economist): It is not practical to smash the
present stock market system and set up a new one. Such a suggestion
is very harmful to the stock market. First of all, most investors
will lose confidence in the stock market, and worry about its
collapse. As a matter of fact, in the past 10 years China's stock
market has witnessed a tremendous achievement, in spite of
problems. We should improve the stock market and make it more
standard, instead of smashing it. Investors' confidence in a stock
market is indispensable. Without it, the stock market will be in
trouble. It is difficult to reestablish investors' confidence. This
is why I say Xu's statement is not prudent.
Zhao Dajian (President of China Securities Co. Ltd.): The
debate has actually entered on the relationship between the stock
market's standardization and development. For the former purpose,
some suggested demolition of the present stock market structure,
but it is not practical. Like many other things in China, the stock
market should be standardized in the course of development.
Otherwise, it will fall into plight.
Ji Hong (Professor at Capital University of Economics and
Business): In the past few years, cases involving malpractice
have occurred one after another on China's stock market and the
quality of listed companies is dwindling. But it is the investors'
choice to keep the stock market or not, rather than the assertion
of a single expert. Negating the stock market is equated with
negating the government's ability in management. The stock market
is an important component of modern market economy, and the most
sensitive and influential part of macro-economy. Hence, the
government should not turn a blind eye to the fluctuations of the
market.
With the development of China's stock market, opportunities for
people to make a huge profit overnight are rare. Those who have
made a fortune by taking advantage of a fledging stock market found
it hard to gain the same opportunity. Demolishing the present stock
market and establishing a new one will make it possible for them to
reshuffle money, and gain the opportunity to make a fortune. But
the stock market was set up and has been managed by the government.
To overthrow it is no more than a daydream. Generally speaking, a
stock market exerts influence on a substantial economy in one or
two years. Therefore, if we now neglect the stock market, it will
retaliate with a heavy blow to the macro-economy.
(Beijing
Review No.51)