Beijing's growing flexibility in determining the difference between
political and economic issues is expected to raise hopes in opening
talks on the three direct links with Taiwan, leading mainland
experts said Monday.
They stressed that besides scoring high political points, the
mainland's strategy will put mounting pressure on Taiwan to lift
its decades-old ban on cross-Straits trade, transport and postal
services.
Taiwan leader Chen Shui-bian's refusal to treat such links as the
domestic affairs of one country on Sunday will not stop the
movement from catching on, they said.
"Chances will be improved and momentum will be gained for opening
the three links following Beijing's latest overture," said
Professor Fan Xizhou, former director of the Taiwan Research
Institute at Xiamen
University.
The researcher made the comments after Chen dismissed remarks by
Vice-Premier Qian Qichen that the three direct links could be
opened as soon as possible provided these services were treated as
domestic affairs.
When discussing and implementing the three links, the two sides do
not have to address the political meaning of "one China," Qian said
to dozens of visiting Taiwanese businessmen and a group of
Taiwanese in favor of direct cross-Straits links. The delegation
was headed by Hsu Hsin-liang, a former chairman of the ruling
pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
The vice-premier said on Friday that talks on the three links can
go ahead as long as the Taiwan authorities allow non-governmental
business organizations to be involved. He also said the issue of
the three direct links is purely an economic one, arguing that it
should not be affected and disrupted by politics.
Professor Fan said the mainland's flexible and pragmatic stance
that Beijing and Taipei need not get involved in politics to open
up direct links will further weaken Taipei's stance in maintaining
the 53-year-old ban on the links.
"Beijing's open attitude in dealing with cross-Straits economic and
trade issues has actually made it extremely difficult for Taiwan
authorities to defend the ban for political reasons," the professor
said.
He
added that Chen's refusal to accept the three direct links as
internal issues indicates that the ideology-minded leader is still
managing to mix purely economic issues with politics.
Chen, who has refused to embrace the one-China principle cherished
by Beijing that both Taiwan and the mainland are part of China,
repeated Taipei's official line that no preconditions should be set
for the establishment of the three links.
"If Beijing regards the three links as domestic affairs, then it
means they are trying to preset conditions which should not be
allowable," the DPP leader reportedly said during his trip to
Malawi in Africa.
But his recent comments do not rule out the possibility of entering
into talks with the mainland on realizing the three links in a
limited way and within a certain framework, Professor Fan said.
"It is very obvious that Chen has still left the door open (for
negotiating with the mainland) although he stands firm on the
political front," he said, adding that support for the opening of
the three links is gaining ground within the ruling DPP.
Chen said on May 9 that the establishment of the links is "a road
we must take," and his administration will consider allowing
private groups to negotiate directly with the mainland on opening
the three links.
But Li Jiaquan, a senior researcher with the
Institute of Taiwan Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social
Sciences, warned against two uncertain factors that could cloud the
establishment of the three links.
One is the planned amendments to the Statute Governing the
Relations Between the People of the Taiwan Area and the Mainland
Area in Taiwan's "parliament" in November.
The proposed amendments will be put forth by the opposition
Kuomintang and People First Party, who call for the three links to
be "allowed in principle" instead of being "forbidden in principle"
which the current Statute reads. If this passes, it may pave the
way for opening the links through legislation, Li said.
"If the legislation goes smoothly and finally produces positive
results, it may create a new chance and a turning point for the
implementation of the three links," he noted.
"But if the legislative move turns out to be just a political
wrangle and bickering between opposition parties and the DPP, the
final result will be hard to predict."
The researcher said another more unpredictable factor is
Washington's influence in the development of cross-Straits
relations.
As
history has proven, Li said, the United States has affected the
direction of cross-Straits relations every time bilateral ties turn
for the better in a bid to put Taiwan under its own control.
"We need more time to observe how this matter (the establishment of
three links) may evolve given the fact that it is still unclear
what Washington will do, whether overly or covertly, on this
issue," he said.
(China Daily July 9,
2002)