Reform of key financial mechanisms was top of the agenda at the Central Economic Working Conference of 2002, which closed on December 10. According to a recent Business Post report, the People's Bank of China, that is the central bank, might expect to enjoy more independence after a possible reorganization in 2003.

There is a proposal to set up a new organization to be known as the China Banking Regulatory Commission. It is believed that the move would split off the central bank's financial supervisory function while strengthening its role in monetary decision-making.

Insiders consider this to be a possible development following the establishment of a Central Financial Security Lead Team in November 2002. This is directed by vice-premier and newly elected standing politburo member Wen Jiabao.

The annual cycle would see China's economic decision-makers drawing up strategy planning in the spring. This builds on preparatory work carried out by the Central Economic Working Conference during the preceding winter. Financial reform, one of the four highlights of the conference, has long been an issue requiring careful attention by China's top decision-makers.

An official with the Central Financial Working Committee, who declined to be named, considered that the main issue in restructuring China's financial mechanisms would be to separate the central bank's financial supervisory function from its role in monetary policymaking.

An official with the central bank told Business Post that such a move would allow the central bank to concentrate on making monetary policy and then on supervising the implementation of that policy. He added that if a China Banking Regulatory Commission were to be set up, it could perform a financial supervision role in much the same way as either the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) or the China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC).

The point of view that the central bank should concentrate on monetary policy rather than financial supervision has been brought forward by experts with the Development Research Center of the State Council. They see financial supervision as an ongoing function of government whereas monetary decision-making is a matter for legislation. The independence of monetary policy-making could be compromised with a Central Bank required to perform both functions.

A China Banking Regulatory Commission would come directly under the leadership of the Central Financial Security Lead Team and the People's Bank of China. This is being spoken of as transitional arrangement only while the People's Bank of China gradually steps back from responsibility for the supervisory function.

Central government is aware of the importance of convening a Central Financial Working Conference, but the date has not yet been set. If the scheme being proposed were to be adopted at the conference, the way would be clear for the central bank to go on to become more independent with regard to monetary policy.

The Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China promulgated in 1995 strengthened the independence of the central bank. However it remains a branch of government and so has only limited independence on monetary policy. For example changes in interest rates or money supply require the approval of the State Council.

However many economists have shown that Central Bank Independence (CBI) would have the potential to significantly influence target setting and the effectiveness of monetary policy. According to international experts, CBI would include independence on target setting, economic independence and political independence. China has some catching up to do in each of these three areas.

Currently the Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China stipulates that the three core functions of the central bank are monetary policymaking, financial supervision and its role in payment and clearance activities. Proposals to amend this law could be brought to the next National People's Congress.

In the words of one official, the implementation of financial reform could bring a redeployment of staff way beyond what they might imagine today.

(china.org.cn by Tang Fuchun January 1, 2003)