Chinese lawmakers and government advisors have warned against a possible recurrence of the devastating summer flooding of the Yangtze, China's longest river, in 1998, but they also expressed strong confidence in the river's fortified embankments.

"Flood control and resistance should always top the agenda in all Yangtze-related work," said Li Antian, a noted water conservancy expert, who is in Beijing for the first session of the 10th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), the top advisory body in China.

In January and February, the upper reaches of the Yangtze recorded seldom seen scarce precipitation figures with the local water level dropping to a record low. Meanwhile, the water level in the middle and lower reaches was higher than usual due to the swelling of major lakes that empty into the Yangtze.

This has triggered speculations and worries among some scholars, who pointed out that similar signs had also emerged prior to the mighty flood in 1998. That flooding claimed more than 1,000 lives and caused great economic losses.

Sources with the Yangtze River Water Resources Committee based in Central China's Hubei Province also predicted a high possibility of massive rainfall in the Yangtze middle and lower reaches during this year's impending flood season, mainly due to the influence of El Nino.

Cai Qihua, director of the committee and a deputy to the 10th National People's Congress, China's top legislature, which will hold its first annual session in Beijing from March 5, conceded that the situation in the Yangtze's upper reaches in this year's dry season did look similar to the 1998 scenario, but claimed this did not necessarily mean major summer flooding was inevitable.

"We will not get a reliable forecast until late March or early April," she said.

Even if the flooding really occurs this summer and is as ferocious as the one in 1998, people could still feel at ease as they are now under the protection of more than 3,500 kilometers of fortified embankments, Cai added.

After the 1998 flooding, which caused the breach of some sections of the outdated Yangtze dykes, the Chinese Government invested more than 29 billion yuan (US$3.5 billion) to strengthen or rebuild the embankments, especially those along the river's middle and lower reaches. The project was completed last year.

(China Daily March 4, 2003)