External shocks such as the Iraq crisis and the outbreak of
Severe
Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) have put East Asia in a
troubled and uncertain environment, despite strong growth of nearly
6 percent over the last year. Given the range of uncertainties, the
World Bank's new update on East Asia projects that growth will fall
by almost a percentage point in 2003, to 5 percent, before
rebounding in 2004.
"Although this growth projection is less than what was initially
hoped for, the East Asia region has fundamental strengths that
should enable it to withstand these short-term shocks, and grow
faster than any other region in the world," said Vice President for
East Asia and the Pacific Mr. Jemal-ud-din Kassum at today's
launch.
Addressing the Impact of SARS
With SARS having replaced the war in Iraq as the region's most
pressing concern, the report addresses policy implications of SARS,
beyond the obvious need for stringent public health measures to
control the spread of the disease. "Since the short run economic
impacts are almost entirely based on public fears, information
policy will play a critical role. Frankness and transparency in
public information, then, will be critical in building trust and
minimizing the economic costs of SARS," Mr. Kassum said.
Although addressing the economic impact of SARS is unusually
difficult, Mr. Kassum said that most projections show
worst-affected industries in the short run are likely to be service
industries based on face to face interaction between service
providers and customers such as tourism, business travel,
transportation, and retail sales. In most-affected areas like Hong
Kong, retail sales are already depressed Hong Kong's Retail
Management Association said in early April that retail sales had
plunged between 5080 percent since the outbreak of SARS last month.
With a scenario based on assumptions about how much tourism and
other activities will fall, and on how important tourism is to each
economy, the report estimates the impact effect of SARS could
reduce regional growth by 0.3 percentage points while additional
multiplier effects could double that figure.
"Like the Iraq crisis, SARS is in principle a temporary shock
although there is a great deal of uncertainty as to how large the
SARS crisis will be in the end. Countries with high foreign
reserves and a decent fiscal position may well be inclined to
consider carefully designed policies that support economic activity
during the shock," said Mr. Kassum. He noted that the region as a
whole has run large current account surpluses and built up regional
foreign exchange reserves totaling nearly $800 billion dollars
about 30 percent of regional GDP and therefore, most of the larger
economies should have less difficulty in financing the adverse
shocks of 2003.
Future Outlook: Strengths of the Past Help Region
The report cites a number of reasons for an overall optimistic
outlook, including: modestly stronger OECD growth and world trade
this year; higher world agricultural prices boosting incomes in
South East Asia, especially in rural areas; falling spreads on high
yield debt suggesting that world capital markets are looking on
emerging economies with a more favorable eye; and the build up of
high levels of foreign reserves in the region. Furthermore, the
Iraq war turned out to be short, and many of the worst predicted
effects did not materialize. Oil prices have receded from their
peaks and are expected to fall further.
Commenting on further reasons for optimism about East Asia's growth
prospects was Mr. Homi Kharas, Chief Economist for East Asia and
the Pacific Region. He said that the wide array of reforms
undertaken by countries since the crisis have contributed to a
gradual improvement in the profitability, balance sheets positions
and resilience of banks and corporations in several countries.
Stronger flows of consumer and housing credit have helped underpin
stronger household consumption and housing construction. "SARS may
have a severe effect over the short-term, but it is unlikely to
stop the discernible underlying trend towards a gradual
strengthening of East Asian domestic demand and activity."
Mr. Kharas continued, "In a slightly longer term perspective, the
last year saw a rapid expansion of East Asian intra-regional trade,
in particular in East Asian trade with China, which is increasingly
focused on trade in high tech' parts, components and products. Such
trade is likely to enhance productivity among participants."
Addressing the "China Challenge"
While China is one of the epicenters of the SARS outbreak, it is
still generally expected to grow at robust rates. "The China
Challenge' is not only a matter of coping with competition from
Chinese producers in one's home market or foreign markets, but also
of seeking out and exploiting fast growing opportunities in the
major trade and production hub emerging in China," commented Mr.
Milan Brahmbhatt, Lead Economist and principal author of the
report. Exports to China from eight other East Asian countries rose
35 percent in 2002, contributing 37 percent of their total export
growth, while the growth in trade among these eight countries
themselves contributed another 29 percent.
"A
key consideration for China this year," said Deepak Bhattasali,
Chief of the Economics Unit and Lead Economist for China, "is the
management of the macroeconomic stimulus program. Prior to SARS,
there was a feeling that China was growing strongly and the time
was right for fiscal consolidation--easing fiscal stimulus spending
and focusing again on effective development-oriented spending. Now,
depending on how the economy performs, the need to continue to
support consumer spending in the economy may re-emerge."
Recent studies suggest that China is drawing in imports on the
basis its own domestic demand, as well as inputs for the production
of its exports. Strong domestic demand in China may therefore be
providing a partial buffer against recession or slow growth in the
rest of the world.
Addressing Poverty
East Asia's poverty numbers continue to fall, with the number of
poor measured at $2 a day level dropping by over 50 million to 724
million in 2002. Equivalently, the poverty rate at $2 a day level
fell to about 40 percent, its lowest ever level, down from 43
percent in 2001. Robust poverty reduction was underpinned by better
rural income gains in several countries most notably China,
supported in part by higher primary commodity prices. Despite a
slower pace, economic growth should be sufficient to secure a
continued fall in poverty in 2003, the report says.
Looking beyond this, the longer run problem of rural poverty will
mainly be solved by the movement of population to more productive
jobs in cities. A Special Focus on East Asia's Urban Transformation
in this report discusses these issues in depth.
Grappling with Challenges of Urbanization in East Asia
East Asia's economic future depends on its urban areas, which are
expected to contribute at least 70 percent of the region's growth
in the next twenty years. Cities are the main locus of
globalization, the main centers for production of internationally
traded goods and services and for location of foreign investment.
The economic, demographic, and governance transitions associated
with urbanization offer extraordinary opportunities for increased
incomes and improved prosperity, but they also pose a challenge of
unprecedented proportions for East Asia's urban managers.
In
the first quarter of this century the region's urban population is
set to grow by roughly half a billion people. If not properly
managed, urbanization can take place in ways that exacerbate
environmental damage, congestion, lack of basic services, ill
health and insecurity. Growth strategies, poverty reduction
programs, and infrastructure and environmental programs are now
perhaps more vital at the city level than at the national level.
Urban governments, many of them recently unshackled by new
decentralization policies, are scrambling to meet these diverse
demands. East Asia's Urban Transformation reviews the long-term
trends affecting cities in East Asia and their implications for
urban policy and management, and offers recommendations for
action.
(China.org.cn April 24, 2003)