The "natural museum of glaciers" is falling, a rare occurrence
on Yulong ("Jade Dragon") Snow Mountain, said Wu Guangjian, of the
Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research at the Chinese Academy of
Sciences (CAS).
He Yuanqing, a leading scientist conducting research on the
glacier, was not available for comment yesterday, reportedly on his
way to the site with a team to analyze the implications of the
development. He led research between 2000 and 2002 for the CAS Cold
and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute
in Lanzhou, capital of northwest China's Gansu Province.
About 26 kilometers north of the ancient Lijiang Town tourist
magnet in southwest China's Yunnan
Province stands the towering Yulong Snow Mountain, which
fascinates visitors from around the world.
But the recent collapse has glacialists worrying whether it is
on a fast track toward disappearing.
The first report that reached the local government on the
glacier falling was in mid-March. But to the surprise of many who
visited the site after the pervading fog lifted, the collapse of
the glacier had evidently been going on for some time and is very
likely to happen again.
Wu said that a proper foundation in facts is required in order
to say with any accuracy what triggered the event this time.
Earthquakes are among the most common causes, but no earthquakes
have been recorded in the region.
The worries may be more profound, because it might indicate that
global warming--the underlying cause of the constant shrinkage of
the glacier since the early 1980s--is sending it into its death
throes, said Wu.
The Yulong glacier is the southernmost marine glacier in the
northern hemisphere's temperate zone, and has been called the
"natural museum of glaciers."
But from 1982 to 2002, the glacier shrank noticeably, with the
ice tongue of its largest component, the Baishui No. 1 Glacier,
retreating 250 meters.
After carefully comparing the shrinkage with the changes of
temperature in the area and in the world as a whole, He concluded
in a research report that the shrinkage is a direct result of
global warming.
He said the temperature change in the Lijiang area in the past
20 years is roughly the same as that in the northern hemisphere on
average, which has been 0.4 C and 1 C higher than that of 1960s,
respectively.
There are 8,600-odd glaciers of various sizes in the country's
temperate zones. The one on Yulong Snow Mountain is the smallest
and the southernmost, and therefore should be the most sensitive to
temperature changes.
If the shrinkage of the Yulong glacier speeds up, a number of
other Chinese glaciers will follow in the near future, according to
He.
Glaciers are much more than scenic gifts from the nature. They
allow room for biodiversity and are a crucial source of water,
storing snow in the winters and releasing water during the hot, dry
summers.
With no signs of a slowdown in the current global warming trend,
Yao Tandong, director of the CAS Institute of Tibetan Plateau
Research, predicts that as many as 64 percent of the country's
glaciers may disappear by the end of the 2050s.
Yao believes Chinese glaciers are shrinking at an unprecedented
rate, and he has grave concerns about the futures of people living
on oases in western China. They account for about 23 percent of the
country's total population.
Water released from glaciers is the lifeline of their oases. But
shrinkage of glaciers, which started in the 1950s, has already cost
as much as 586.9 billion cubic meters of water, roughly 10 times
the volume of the Yellow River, he said.
Although this might mean a more generous water supply in the
short term, especially for western China it will inevitably result
in worse desertification, said Yao.
Yao is strongly urging the government to take steps to help
retain the country's glaciers. It should expand the
glacier-monitoring system, which current covers only three. He also
advocates constructing hydropower projects that make use of the
valleys and lakes left by past glaciers, saying they will add
moisture to the air over existing glaciers, stimulating
snowfall.
The central government has started several research projects and
expects to have results in the near future, according to Yao, who
declined to give more details.
(China Daily May 13, 2004)