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Strong Wheat, Early Rice Harvests Forecast
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Minister of Agriculture Du Qinglin said Wednesday the country's early rice output is expected to grow by more than 13 percent year-on-year, or 4 million tons, after seven consecutive years of declines.

Addressing a national meeting on agriculture, the minister attributed good early rice yields to intervention from central authorities with economic incentives such as higher grain prices.

The area cultivated with early rice is expected to increase by 533,000 hectares over last year, noted the minister.

That good news followed a projected good wheat harvest, which Du estimates will be 2.5 million tons larger than last year for a rise of 3 percent. Wheat output has been declining for the past four years.

"Wheat makes up 90 percent of summer grain crops. A good wheat harvest means a good harvest of summer grain," Du said.

China's total area under grain cultivation is estimated to be up 266,000 hectares from last year, Du said. That represents major progress in reversing extended declines in grain production. It should allow the country to reach its grain production target if no widespread natural adversities occur in the coming months.

Since last year, declining grain output, rising grain prices and concerns over food security have been a focus of Chinese leaders.

The per capita shares of water and agricultural land resources in China are far below the world average, and agricultural land has been dwindling as a result of urbanization and industrial development.

Earlier this year, China set its annual grain output target at 455 million tons and total area sown with grain crops at more than 100 million hectares.

Grain output has declined for five years running. It fell to 431 million tons in 2003, far below the warning line of 450 million tons.

Affected by the international grain market and the decline in domestic grain output, the prices of major cereals like rice and wheat have risen by a substantial margin since last October.

To turn the tide, the central government implemented such policies as direct subsidies and tax reductions for grain growers early this year.

In central China's Henan Province, where one-tenth of the nation's wheat is grown, output is expected to reach 24.3 million tons this summer, surpassing by 303,000 tons its 1997 record.

Like other major grain-producing provincial areas, Henan earmarked 1.2 billion yuan (US$140 million) in direct subsidies: farmers can get 198 yuan (US$24) for each hectare of grain they grow.

Henan allocated another 15 million yuan (US$1.8 million) to subsidize the purchase of top-quality seed and agricultural equipment and tools.

The agricultural tax was cut by 3 percent.

(Xinhua News Agency July 8, 2004)

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