One of the targets put forward in the 11th Five-Year Plan (2006-2010) proposal submitted to the Fifth Plenary Session of the 16th CPC (Communist Party of China) Central Committee was "doubling per capita GDP".

 

It is expected that by 2010, China's per capita gross domestic product (GDP) would have increased from US$850 in 2000 to US$1600-1700. Based on this target, experts forecast that the number of affluent families would have increased by 30 million.

 

Wang Jian, deputy secretary-general of the China Society of Macroeconomics, told China Financial and Economic News that "common prosperity" is emphasized in the proposal, but prosperity levels in different parts of China cannot be evaluated using a single criterion. The development differences between urban and rural areas, inland and coastal areas should also be considered.

 

For example, Shenzhen, one of China's richer cities, reported US$7000 per capita GDP in 2004. The municipal government announced that by 2010, their per capita GDP should reach US$12 thousand, equaling that of a medium-developed country.

 

In China's mid-west, on the other hand, per capita GDP should reach US$1600-1700 in 2010, equaling that of the eastern coastal cities in the late 1900s.

 

Moreover, living standards in the eastern coastal cities in 2010 will be similar those in Shenzhen today.

 

According to Wang, living standards in currently less developed areas and developed areas will still be quite different by 2010. But there will be less polarization between rich and poor; the base standard of living will be greatly improved.

 

At present, there are about 40 million affluent families with annual incomes of about 100 thousand yuan, accounting for 10 percent of the 400 million families in China. Under the assumed 8 percent GDP growth rate, there should be 70 million affluent families by 2010. 

 

In terms of private cars, there are five million private cars in China today, or four cars to every 1000 people. If annual purchasing power continues to rise at 20 percent, by 2010, there will be 15 million private cars in the country, or 10 cars to every 1000 people. "Of course," Wang added, "this is just a rough forecast according to the current situation."

 

An increase in social wealth is the prerequisite of constructing an affluent society. If per capital GDP is doubled, more funds will be available to develop public welfare services including rural medical treatment, employment and compulsory education. 

 

Another China Financial and Economic News report published on October 22 stated that general index statistics were used in previous Five-Year Plans and forecasts, but the individual index was neglected. This was according to Cong Ming, deputy director of the Macro Department of State Council Research Office, With the introduction of per capita GDP, individuals who will be born over the next five years will also be considered, which is more reasonable and people-oriented.

 

Cong added that based on current population growth rates, China should become a medium-income country by 2020, with US$3000 per capita GDP. Taking into account any RMB revaluation, this estimate could be considered to be conservative.

 

(China.org.cn By Xu Lin October 31, 2005)