Monday's Beijing Daily reported on a survey of
economists conducted by the National Bureau of
Statistics' China Economic Monitoring and Analysis Center that
found their confidence over the past three quarters "satisfactory"
and that they believed deflation would be unlikely next year.
80 economists participated in the survey, which the paper
described as "recent" and that used a confidence index that ranged
from 1 to 9, with 9 being the most confident. The overall index
amongst respondents was found to be 5.11.
The confidence index was calculated by averaging the sum of the
current and expected economic prosperity indexes. An index above 5
was interpreted as meaning their evaluation of economic trends was
positive and optimistic.
The survey found that the majority of economists thought current
economic development was in a "not cold and not hot" normal
condition, and most were satisfied by it.
As to expected trends over the next six months, 72 percent
thought conditions would remain unchanged, 19 percent that they
would deteriorate and 9 percent that they would "take a favorable
turn."
68 percent thought the increase in consumption would remain
unchanged, 22 percent that it would speed up and 10 percent that it
would slow down.
The survey also found that most thought the consumer price index
would be stable, with a possible increase of around 1 to 2 percent.
68 percent thought deflation unlikely, 25 percent "very possible"
and 7 percent impossible.
85 percent thought that, although economic growth this year has
been slower than 2004, it would remain at 9 percent. 70 percent
thought it would be between 9 and 9.2 percent.
In consideration of an unlikely increase in exports and
investment, they predicted that next year's increase in GDP would
fall. 85 percent thought the increase would be 8 to 9 percent, 63
percent that it would be over 8.5 percent and 7 percent that it
would be over 9 percent.
More economists tended to support a more relaxed currency
policy, the same proportion as those who wanted to maintain a
stable interest rate.
(China.org.cn by Wang Qian November 24, 2005)