China will this year replace Germany as the world's second
largest trader with US$2.1 trillion in foreign trade and may
overtake the world's largest trader, the United States, by the end
of the decade, says a senior Chinese researcher.
"China maintained a growth rate of more than 20 percent in
foreign trade in the first quarter and is likely to maintain the
momentum throughout the year," said Li Yushi, vice president of the
Research Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation
under the Ministry of Commerce.
Despite a growth rate that declined to 6.9 percent in March,
foreign trade in the first three months totaled US$457.7 billion,
up 23.3 percent year-on-year.
Exports reached US$252.1 billion, up 27.8 percent, while imports
were valued at US$205.7 billion, up 18.2 percent, according to
figures released by the Chinese customs.
While the Ministry of Commerce projected foreign trade to grow
by about 10 percent a year between 2006 and 2010, Li's institute
predicts the growth rate will be between 12 and 15 percent.
"Based on these predictions, we can tell that China will
overtake the United States to be the world's largest trader in
2010," Li told a seminar on China's foreign trade prospects in
Guangzhou.
China started to lower export tax rebates on numerous items last
September to help bring down its trade surplus, said Li. “The
government is also developing policies aimed at expanding imports
by encouraging domestic companies to import state-of-the-art
equipment and technologies."
China's soaring exports in 2006 expanded its trade surplus to a
record US$178 billion, up 74 percent from the previous record of
US$102 billion set in 2005.
China's trade surplus for the first two months of the year hit
US$39.6 billion, more than the entire first quarter of last
year.
In March, however, the surplus dropped to US$6.87 billion,
dipping below the US$10 billion mark for the first time since March
2006.
The World Trade Organization said in a report last week that
China's product exports started to exceed those of the United
States in the second half of 2006, but figures for the entire year
show China ranked third in exports, after Germany and the United
States.
(Xinhua News Agency April 30, 2007)