UBS forecasts economy to grow 9%
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China's economy will grow 9 percent this year due to strong investment in the property market and rising exports, said Wang Tao, head of China Economic Research of UBS Securities.
But Wang also cautioned that a property bubble could become the biggest risk to the economy.
"Accelerating urbanization, last year's bullish property market and lower-level government commissions mean that more investment will flow to the real estate market in 2010," Wang said in Shanghai yesterday.
She said recent moves by the central government - including a rise in the down payment ratio and cancellation of preferential rates on mortgage loans for a second home - are designed to curb speculation, not suppress the property market.
"A robust real estate market is an important engine for China's economy," Wang said.
Thus, ample liquidity and policy stimulus will continue to boost investment in property development.
However, at the same time the government should protect against the sector overheating, which may lead to more overcapacity in industries such as steel and aluminum, as well as an increase in bad loans.
Wang said exports will increase this year. She said exports would post double-digit growth this year. Her forecast was an upward revision of her earlier prediction of 6 percent growth in overseas shipments. The revision was made after exports surged 17.7 percent in December.
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