CPI target of 3% achievable
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China can keep inflation under control and the target of a 3 percent Consumer Price Index growth this year is still possible, a senior government official said yesterday.
Sheng Laiyun, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said surging prices in May were not a full-blown increase, but remained structural, largely restricted to the food sector.
"There are two main reasons for the May price increase," Sheng said. "First, last year's negative figure provides a very low comparative base. Second, higher food costs contributed the most to the increase while the growth in the non-food sector was still mild."
China's CPI, the main gauge of inflation, rose 3.1 percent from a year earlier in May, the fastest pace in 19 months. It has been more than the benchmark one-year deposit rate of 2.25 percent for four consecutive months and the first time this year to surpass the central bank's target of 3 percent for this year.
The Producer Price Index, the factory-gate yardstick of inflation, climbed 7.1 percent year on year last month, further picking up from the growth of 6.8 percent in April.
In May, food costs grew 6.1 percent, compared with a gain of 5.9 percent a month earlier. Lower food production after natural disasters and abnormal weather since the beginning of this year were partly blamed for the price increases.
There was talk that some investment was channeled to speculate on agricultural produce such as beans and garlic after the government tried to crack down on property speculation.
But that was denied by the National Development and Reform Commission, and bean and garlic prices were falling.
"With less expensive food products and the fading effect of low comparative base, China will see a moderation in CPI increase," Sheng said. "It is still possible for China to contain the rate within 3 percent for this year."
In the first five months, China's CPI gained 2.5 percent from a year earlier, while the PPI advanced 5.9 percent.
"We expect CPI inflation to peak around July," said Wang Qing, a Morgan Stanley economist.
Wang said he did not think the higher-than-expected inflation in May would give rise to risk of an imminent interest rate hike.
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