November CPI expected to hit record high
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China's November consumer price index (CPI), a main indicator of inflation, is expected to exceed the 4.4 percent seen in October and reach a new record high of the year, according to financial institutions’ forecasts.
China International Capital Corporation (CICC) predicted in its latest report that CPI could reach 4.8 percent in November, but will decline after the first quarter of 2011. According to CICC's prediction, China will conduct two 25-basis-point rate hikes between now and the end of 2011, probably with one rate hike before the end of this year and another one in the first half of 2011.
Industrial Bank expected November's CPI to be 4.8 percent. The bank believes China may further raise the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 to 1 percent before year-end, unless the central bank conducts massive liquidity drains through open market operations.
UBS forecast China's CPI in November will reach 5 percent, but will drop slightly in December. There will be one more rate hike this year in China and two to three rate hikes in 2011, UBS said in its most recent report.
China's business press carried the story above on Monday. China.org.cn has not checked the stories and does not vouch for their accuracy.
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