Small possibility of double-dip recession in China

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The likelihood of China's economy plunging into recession is very small even though economic data released Tuesday showed the world's second largest economy expanded at its slowest pace in two years in the third quarter.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced that the country's GDP grew 9.1 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of the year, compared to 9.5 percent in the second quarter and 9.7 percent in the first.

Even though the risk of a double-dip recession of the global economy looms due to debt crises and sluggish economic growth in the world's major developed countries, NBS spokesman Sheng Laiyun said that the risk of China experiencing a recession in the near future is very low.

"China's economic growth is stable, and the possibility of a double dip is very small in the coming period," Sheng said.

Despite challenges and uncertainties both at home and abroad, it is likely that China's economy will maintain its stable and relatively fast growth in the coming period, boosted by a strong growth momentum, Sheng said during a press conference.

NBS data showed that fixed asset investment rose 24.9 percent year-on-year to 21.23 trillion yuan (3.33 trillion U.S. dollars) in the first nine months, of which 59 percent had come from the private sector, according to Sheng.

Boosted by robust auto and construction materials consumption, the country's retail sales surged 17.7 percent from a year earlier in September, following an increase of 17 percent in August.

China's automobile sales rose more than 19 percent month-on-month to about 1.65 million units in September. Auto sales in the first nine months totaled 13.63 million units, up 3.62 percent year-on-year.

Further, China's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), another important indicator for economic performance, continued its rise in September. The index rose 51.2 percent, up from 50.9 percent in August. It marked the second straight month that the index kept rising month-on-month.

Lian Ping, chief economist of the Bank of Communications said on Tuesday that China's economy will not incur a hard landing.

Lian also said China's economy is unlikely to suffer a double dip as domestic demand remains strong. He said that investment is not likely to decline, the real estate market will stabilize, and the auto market will start to pick up.

He said that only exports now face uncertainties. Due to sluggish global demand and rising costs in domestic markets, China's trade surplus fell for the second straight month in September, dropping by 12.4 percent year-on-year to reach 14.51 billion U.S. dollars.

Lian forecast that China's economy will expand by between 8.5 percent and 9 percent given that the global markets will not further worsen.