China rural unrest on the wane, survey claims
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Despite many recent high-profile incidents, rural unrest in China has declined over the longer term, according to research carried out by a US professor.
In March 2010, a pig farmer in the prosperous coastal province of Jiangsu burnt himself to death when officials came to demolish his farmhouse to make way for a highway. Tao Huixi had demanded 150,000 yuan compensation for his property but the local government would only pay half that amount. Tao's father was also badly burnt, but survived.
The horrific incident was one of many disputes that galvanized public opinion against what many saw as accelerating land grabs by local governments as China rapidly urbanizes. Chinese bloggers published maps of land dispute hotspots. Judging from both overseas and domestic media coverage, it seemed that rural conflict in China was on the rise.
But this widely accepted picture may be misleading, according to Professor Ethan Michelson, of Indiana University. Successive surveys he carried out in 2002 and 2010 in the same five rural areas showed numbers of conflicts falling, and attitudes towards government improving. Researchers interviewed more than 2000 people each time in rural districts of Jiangsu, Shaanxi, Henan, and Hunan provinces, and a rural area of Chongqing municipality.
"The picture that emerged from our 2002 data was of rural China as a hotbed of conflict and discontent," Michelson told journalists in Beijing on March 22. But by 2010, researchers found that the picture had changed.
"Far fewer people are reporting dissatisfaction in 2010 than in 2002," he said. "Levels of disrespect [for local officials] are way, way down."
It is not that problems have disappeared from the countryside. In 2010 a sixth of disputes of all kinds reported by those surveyed were with local officials, and almost half of these were collective disputes, involving more than one family. Half of all land disputes were about requisitioning. And one in every 14 disputes resulted in violence.
"There's still a lot of conflict in rural China, there's a lot of discontent in rural China, but things have improved. Rural China seems to be on a positive trajectory."
Michelson attributes the improvements to policies introduced by the Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao leadership that assumed power just after the 2002 survey was carried out. In particular he cited the policies of rural construction and "building a new socialist countryside."
"Under their administration, rural problems have really taken center stage," he said. "We're all aware of the leading slogans of the Chinese central government of constructing a harmonious society. Behind these slogans of building harmony are some pretty serious policies."
One of the principal changes was the abolition of the agricultural tax in 2005-6, Michelson said.
"Besides the official government taxes there were all sorts of fees and fines that, lumped together, were known as the peasants' burden," he said. "These are for the most part history now."
Other major changes included increases in agricultural subsidies, the waiving of school fees, minimum income guarantees, subsidized purchases of home appliances such as refrigerators and televisions, and major improvements in rural infrastructure. Around 9 percent of the 4 trillion yuan stimulus package introduced in 2008 was spent on rural infrastructure – building roads, extending the electrical network and providing running water.
Michelson also cited the recent implementation of a rural health insurance scheme. "Since 2008- 2009, essentially from almost nowhere, a new rural healthcare system has emerged and grown." According to Michelson, between 1980 and 1998 rural health insurance coverage dropped from 80 percent to 7 percent. But by 2011 almost 90 percent of rural residents had some form of coverage.
Other surveys confirm the changing attitudes to government among Chinese farmers, according to Michelson. He cited a World Values survey which found that their trust in people's congresses rose to 48 percent in 2007, from 33 percent in 2001.
But Professor Michelson warned that many of the local government programs that have reduced discontent have been funded by bank loans, many of which are unlikely to be repaid. He said that if spending turns out to be unsustainable and the rising expectations of rural people are not met, their attitudes to local governments could worsen rapidly.
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