Statistician warns of China's demographic crisis

By Zhang Lulu
0 Comment(s)Print E-mail China.org.cn, December 7, 2015
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Wang Chen, 33, has been worn out for days. While his grandpa, having fractured bones in September, still remains in hospital, Wang's mother was recently diagnosed with a brain tumor.

Wang shuttled back and forth between the different wards of the hospital to take care of his parents until became exhausted.

"I've never wished so much that my parents had had another child besides me, and at least he or she could now be helping me take care all this,"said the frustrated Wang.

He is one of the around 150 million "only children" in China -- children born into most Chinese families that were allowed to have only one child due to a stringent family planning policy launched around 35 years ago. Though the policy was recently scrapped and replaced by a policy of allowing all couples to have two children, the implementation of the new rulehas not yet got into full swing.

Many local authorities are still waiting for revisions to the previous laws, but scholars and experts have been urging the immediate implementation of the new policy, citing concerns about the already imbalanced demographic structure and the demographic crisis they believe is on the way.

Two-child policy should be implemented immediately

In an interview with China Business News, Yao Meixiong, an official at the Fujian Provincial Bureau of Statistics who has kept an eye on the population issues in China, said the country should be cautious about the "low fertility trap," and it should create a sound and friendly environment so that the new policy will not be greeted with the lukewarm reaction seen in the previous partial loosening of the policy.

"The population situation in China is already very severe, the demographic structure is imbalanced -- it may jeopardize the sustainable development of the population and undermine the population security in China," Yao warned.

People below the age of 14 only account for 16.5 percent of the country's entire population, which is far below the world average of 27 percent, the statistician said. The country is rapidly aging, with the population of people aged 65 and over reaching 400 million and accounting for 30 percent of the entire population by 2050. The sex ratio at birth is skewed: males below 19 outnumbered females by 22.1 million in 2010, according to Yao.

The country is also trapped in a low birth rate, which has been hovering around 1.4 and 1.5 in the recent decade, far less than the 2.1 replacement level and the world average 2.5 level. It is even below the 1.7 level in many developed economies, Yao said.

"The population crisis is already emerging … the new policy of allowing all couples to have two children must be implemented immediately," he warned.

Seize the last chance of adjusting demographic structure

Yao argued that the new policy is the last chance of making adjustment to the demographic structure in China.

Women born in the 1980s and 1990s, or roughly "China's Millennials," are less ready to have children than those who are born in the 1970s, Yao said. Besides, the number of women in their twenties will only reach 82 million by 2020 and 66 million by 2030, a reduction of 25.8 percent and 40 percent respectively from the 2005 level. Thus high hopes of more children are placed on women who are born in the 1970s, but there are high risks due to age, Yao said.

"If we miss the last chance, even though reproduction is encouraged in future, the decrease of fertile women will be unlikely to repair the twisted demographic structure," he warned.

In a survey conducted online about people's readiness for a second child after the introduction of the new policy, many respondents expressed concern about the tremendous cost of raising a child.

Yao said the country should subsidize those families who have children and help them in various fronts including taxation relief, employment, education and medical care. He proposed that China's nine-year compulsory education, which is available to every child free, should be extended to the kindergarten period. He also said that mothers should have a longer maternity leave of six months rather than a maximum of four months.

The statistician said the next step in the country's population policy should focus on encouraging people to have more children after accommodating a possible boom in birth in the next three years.

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