Name: Jonathan Ellis Hillman, Director of the Reconnecting Asia Project, Center for Strategic and International Studies

Title: One Belt, Many Questions

Abstract:

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a grand vision. Estimates vary, but all point toward a massive endeavor. Geographically, the BRI could span 65 countries and 4.4 billion people, or roughly 70 percent of the world’s population. Economically, it could include Chinese investment approaching $4 trillion, of which nearly $900 billion in deals have already been announced. Functionally, it intends to strengthen hard infrastructure, soft infrastructure, and even cultural ties.

According to official statements, the BRI’s aims are expansive. One important document outlines five major goals: “policy coordination, facilities connectivity, unimpeded trade, financial integration, and people-to-people bonds”. In theory, each of these is a worthwhile and important objective. In practice, however, trying to advance all of them under the guidance of a single initiative presents a number of challenges -- both across and within these objectives. Increasing facilities connectivity, for example, could have an impact on current trade flows, potentially benefitting some areas and disadvantaging others. Furthermore, given that current needs greatly exceed available funds, how will competing infrastructure projects be evaluated? These are important questions to answer, especially in the context of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and other development institutions.

Think tanks have an important role to play in helping the BRI realize its potential. For example, there is a pressing need for on-the-ground information about the current infrastructure push across Asia. Much is known about the BRI and other regional initiatives in broad strokes, but many questions remain about how individual project is actually being implemented. By collecting and analyzing data at the project level, researchers can begin to identify determinants of project success and how projects are interacting as part of a larger network. In the coming weeks, the Center for Strategic and International Studies will be launching a new effort—the Reconnecting Asia Project—that will help fill this gap. Through data curation and objective analysis, we hope to shed light on these important developments. We welcome suggestions for improving our data and analysis and look forward to collaborating with others.

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