Full text: Report on China's economic, social development plan
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E-mail Xinhua, March 18, 2016
- Keeping the overall price level basically stable
In setting a targeted increase of around 3% for CPI, we have taken the following into account: First, the continued impact from last year's CPI increase will be slightly greater than that of the year before. According to our forecast, the contribution of the previous year's CPI increase on the growth of CPI this year will be slightly higher than last year's 0.5%. Second, new factors will contribute to an increase in prices. Although weak demand will make a significant price rebound almost impossible, there will still be additional factors driving price increases: a rise in prices of services as a result of an increase in labor costs, the possibility of cyclical price fluctuations of a number of agricultural products, and the impact of further price reforms. Third, this target will help to guide market expectations. A target of higher price increases will be conducive to reducing expectations of deflation.
- Continuing to improve living standards
More than 10 million new urban jobs are expected to be created this year, and the registered urban unemployment rate will be kept within 4.5%. This will help to ensure that employment remains stable and will also provide leeway to address overcapacity, carry out enterprise mergers and reorganizations, and respond to the issue of hidden unemployment. Personal income will increase in step with economic growth and the income gap between urban and rural residents will continue to narrow. The number of rural residents living in poverty will be reduced by over 10 million and the percentage of the population registered as urban residents will increase by more than 1.3 percentage points. In order to ensure continuous improvement of the social security system, the overall management of social insurance accounts will be turned over to higher-level authorities, coverage will continue to be expanded, and the level of benefits will be increased appropriately. The coverage and equitable delivery of education, health care, culture, and other basic public services will continue to expand.
- Keeping the equilibrium in the balance of payments
The growth rate in the export of goods from China is projected to be faster than that of world trade, the volume of imports is expected to expand, and the proportion of trade in services in relation to the total volume of foreign trade will continue to increase. Foreign investment utilized by China will keep rising, and outbound direct investment is expected to grow rapidly.
3. Orientation of Macroeconomic Policies
Clear requirements were put forth at the Central Economic Work Conference held in Beijing last December for adapting to and guiding the new normal in economic development. In particular, the conference examined how the new normal should be viewed and handled, and in light of this, three approaches we must follow and ten areas of effort we need to highlight were emphasized. The new philosophy of innovative, coordinated, green, open, and shared development, put forward in the CPC Central Committee's Recommendations for the 13th Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development, will serve as a guide for economic and social development during the 13th Five-Year Plan period and beyond. To achieve the targets for economic and social development in 2016, we must keep firmly in mind the requirements for guiding the new normal in the economy and put into practice the new development philosophy. We need to channel greater energy into supply-side structural reform while increasing aggregate demand by an appropriate degree. We need to implement the general philosophy of keeping macro policies stable, industrial policies targeted, micro policies flexible, and reform policies practical, while also making sure social policies meet people's basic needs; at the same time, we need to make sure all policies are well coordinated and work together to create synergy.
- Keeping macro policies stable
We will ensure continuity in and make improvements to macroeconomic policies, strengthen range-based, targeted, and well-timed regulation, increase support for the real economy, and make sure the economy operates within an appropriate range.
On the one hand, we will increase the intensity of our proactive fiscal policy. The government deficit for 2016 is projected to be 2.18 trillion yuan nationwide, which represents a year-on-year increase of 560 billion yuan and a deficit-to-GDP ratio of 3%. Of this amount, the central government deficit will be 1.4 trillion yuan, and the remaining 780 billion yuan will come from the local government deficit. First, a scaled-up deficit in the short term will allow us to increase government spending and central budgetary investment by an appropriate amount, and more importantly to make up for the decrease in government revenue caused by tax and fee reductions, thus ensuring the government can fully meet all of its spending responsibilities. Second, we will optimize the structure of budgetary expenditures, make innovations in the way budgetary funds are used, put surplus budgetary funds to better use, and increase or reduce budgetary expenditures as necessary. Third, an appropriate increase will be allowed in the issuance of special bonds by local governments mainly to support land reserve, transportation, water conservancy, urban infrastructure, and other projects that will yield a certain degree of revenue. Local governments will continue to issue bonds to replace outstanding debts.
On the other hand, we will appropriately increase the flexibility of our prudent monetary policy. We will maintain reasonably ample liquidity and allow an appropriate increase in the aggregate financing of the economy. The M2 money supply is projected to grow by around 13% in 2016, roughly the same as last year. First, we will ensure a smooth transmission mechanism for monetary policy, lower financing costs for the real economy, ensure the financial sector serves the real economy more efficiently, and help solve the problem of financing being difficult and costly to obtain. Second, with the aim of expanding the issuance of bonds and equities as well as other financing channels, we will develop project revenue bonds, high-yield bonds, convertibles, extendable bonds, perpetual notes, and other hybrid securities. We will also raise the proportion of direct financing. Third, we will improve the market-based RMB exchange rate regime and continue to implement a managed floating exchange rate system, thereby allowing the RMB exchange rate to float more freely while also ensuring basic stability is maintained and the rate remains at an appropriate and balanced level. We will exert effective control over abnormal cross-border flow of capital.
While effectively implementing fiscal and monetary policies, we will coordinate the use of and increase compatibility between policies on industrial development, regional development, investment, consumption, and prices and strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments so as to create a stable macro environment for economic development and structural reform.
- Keeping industrial policies targeted
The direction of structural reform needs to be accurately determined; we need to stimulate increases in demand by making innovations on the supply side, and encourage the emergence of new areas of growth. First, we will continue to pursue innovation-driven development. In order to increase incentives for innovation and promote its practical application, we will implement action plans to encourage the commoditization and application of scientific and technological advances and carry out the intellectual property rights strategy, reform the system of property rights on scientific and technological advances, carry out preferential tax policies on equity and option rights, and improve the methods for distributing dividends and giving rewards. We will give full play to the role of entrepreneurship and innovation initiatives and the Internet Plus in pooling the wisdom and strength of the general public. Second, we will focus on invigorating existing resources. We will accelerate technological transformation and upgrading, revitalize existing industries and enterprises, take our industries to a new level, redouble efforts to develop the real economy, and encourage small and medium-sized enterprises to develop on the basis of innovation and transformation. Third, we will move faster to promote green development. We will encourage exploration and experimentation in promoting ecological progress and improve related institutions, and work hard to put in place an industrial system and spatial planning that are eco-friendly to spur on the development of green production and promote a green lifestyle.
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